Measuring the Regional Effects
of Sustainable Development Alternatives





Introduction

Many resource-rich, rural communities in the U.S. are stressed by poverty. Communities that once relied on their forests, bays, ocean shores, or mineral lodes for a steady and dependable source of employment and income are seeing jobs disappear as the resource becomes costlier to harvest, or shifts in markets and technology make their resources obsolete. Without the ability to substitute manufactured capital -- machines, buildings, learned skills -- for their bounty of natural capital, a community's reliance on the stock of natural capital becomes more critical. When communities expend their capital stock, or it no longer satisfies an exported demand, their economies suffer.

As communities grapple with the issues of redevelopment and economic revitalization, they are reminded of the importance and value of their stock of natural resources to their livelihoods and way of life. In many communities people have expressed their desire to retain their rural identity and to protect the resources that have in the past provided them with income. They discover new ways of capitalizing on their endowment of natural resources to bring in jobs and income. Many communities are using the notion of sustainable development to guide growth and economic improvement.

Ecologically sustainable economic development is a concept being adopted as a guide to policy making in the U.S. At the local level, Northampton County, Virginia has embarked on an initiative to identify and promote sustainable development activities on Virginia's Eastern Shore (Smutko, Danielson, and Johnson, 1993).

Sustainable development is a conceptual tool using economic and ecological principles to guide economic growth and improvement. A social-environmental movement formalized by the Bruntland Commission in 1987 (WECD, 1987), sustainable development was conceived in response to developing countries' reliance on commodity exports for foreign exchange and the environmental degradation that commonly results from over-exploitation of their natural resources. At this level, national accounts, world markets and GNP measures of national welfare are the operable maxims of sustainable development. If communities and sub-state regions in the U.S. are to adopt sustainable development principles, the challenge becomes one of converting concepts of foreign trade and national accounts to the local level, i.e., creating a regional sustainable development concept.

Sustainable development concepts conceivably can be applied at any scale. However, there are problems with adapting them to a regional level. Traditional analysis of sustainable development concerns itself with closed economic and ecological systems. In these systems, flows of resources, goods and services, labor and technology are endogenous. By contrast, regional (as opposed to global) systems are open; resources and wastes commonly cross regional boundaries. Sustainability is essentially imported, and unsustainability is exported. This makes analyses of regional sustainability difficult. If one community chooses to convert its wetlands and other wildland habitat into condominiums and boutiques, and another chooses to maintain its resource base intact for the values it offers, is the former community violating precepts of sustainability? Is the latter on a "more sustainable" path? If cross-boundary flows of goods, wastes, services and people are not restricted, as is typical of U.S. communities and regions, is sustainability of the region's economic and ecological systems an issue? In the analysis of regional sustainability, concepts such as scale, characteristics of the resource, and characteristics of the regional economy, are all relevant.

Defining a concept of regional sustainable development introduces other problems related to measurement. Movement toward the goal of regional sustainability implies that the region's environmental, economic, social, and cultural attributes remain sufficiently intact to enable perpetuation of the regional system. Hence, indicators need to be devised to measure changes in the state of these attributes as communities and regions grow and change.

Communities are constantly faced with choices among economic development alternatives. Capital investment by government and the private sector has long-term consequences. If communities are to strive toward more sustainable development paths, they need a method of comparing development alternatives within the framework of the sustainability concept.

The intent of this study is to develop an operational model to guide communities and regions in their development decisions. Specifically, the methodology developed here is a comparative analysis of regional economic development alternatives with respect to the degree of sustainability each achieves.

Conditions for Regional Sustainable Development

In the U.S., regions are often defined geo-politically as a single county or multiple counties. The sustainable development paradigm has lately been adopted by many local governments (e.g., counties and multi-county regions) as a preferred path for regional economic development. Applying the sustainable development model to guide economic growth is useful only in cases where the characteristics of the resource and region support the paradigm. In order for regional sustainable development (RSD) to be established as a valid concept within the larger context of sustainable development, at least one of the following conditions is necessary: (1) the region encompasses one or more functional elements of the ecosystem; (2) the resource is unique; (3) the resource is or has the potential to be a significant component of the region's economy; (4) values associated with the resource enter directly into regional household utility functions; (5) there are barriers to substitution and reinvestment of manufactured capital for natural capital; and (6) development decisions at the regional level affect the welfare level of other regions.

Measuring Sustainability

There is no single best measure of sustainability for all geographical areas. Many alternative economic, social, cultural and environmental or ecological indicators could be chosen depending upon resources available and resource limitations locally, the economic activities being considered and local preferences. In general, it is more feasible to work with a small number of indicators than a large number.

The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has been working independently to develop a workable set of sustainable development indicators (TNC, no date). TNC's framework consists of four categories: (1) productivity; (2) diversity; (3) stability/equilibrium; and (4) adaptability/vitality. Three types of indicators ecological, economic and social are defined within each category.

In this study, objective measures were developed for two of the three indicators, namely: ecologic and economic. An input-output framework is developed to measure the economic and ecologic productivity of alternative development scenarios. Other analytical techniques are used to estimate effects of development alternatives on the diversity and stability of ecologic and economic systems. (Because of the time-dimensional characteristics of ecological and economic adaptability, and the limited ability of the input-output framework to incorporate the time dynamic, this category is not measured). These various techniques are combined to form an index of economic-ecological sustainability. The methodology is tested using case examples of development alternatives for Northampton County, Virginia.

Results
Two economic develop scenarios for Northampton County are introduced: (1) promoting and enhancing the capacity of the county to provide quality nature-based tourism activities that will attract a significant level of visitors bringing money into the community; and (2) revitalizing the vegetable processing industry to regain employment levels of a decade ago.

Each scenario is modeled so that approximately 650 people are employed in the target industries in the county. In the vegetable processing scenario, this means that 650 people are directly employed in vegetable canning and freezing, and in the case of tourism, 650 people are employed in motels/inns and restaurants/bars combined. Comparisons are drawn between the two scenarios with respect to changes from baseline sustainability indicators.

Productivity

Economic
Measured by change in gross regional product, the vegetable processing scenario measured higher in economic productivity than did the tourism scenario, although more jobs were created through the enhancement of tourism. For each new tourism job generated, 5.8 jobs were generated elsewhere in the economy, and for each new job filled in the vegetable processing sector, only 1.4 jobs are generated in other sectors. Tourism creates jobs, yet these jobs tend to be low paying. Total income (proprietary and wage income) per job generated in the tourism scenario averaged $29,438, while value-added per job generated was about $17,978. Total income per job generated in the vegetable processing scenario, on the other hand, was nearly 1.5 times that, or about $43,293.

Ecologic
Ecological stress, derived from estimates of wastewater effluent production, was used as a measure of ecological productivity. Effluent production differs substantially between the two scenarios. Vegetable processing requires large amounts of water to transport, wash, cook, and cool the vegetables, and maintain the processing equipment. As water moves through the process, it picks up large amounts of suspended solids and other oxygen-consuming wastes. Nearly all of the wastewater generated in the processing scenario economy-wide come from the vegetable processing sector. The production level needed to meet the scenario employment goal in the vegetable processing sector generates over 1.6 million pounds of biological oxygen demand (BOD) and 757,000 bounds of total suspended solids annually. Wastes generated in the tourism scenario are principally from the hotel/lodging sector and increases in municipal waste discharges associated with added employment. Wastes generated by the influx of tourists into the county account for about 34,000 pounds of BOD and 19,000 pounds of TSS per year. However, total amount of effluent produced in the tourism scenario was significantly less than that produced in the vegetable processing scenario.

Diversity

Economic
Diversity, as a sustainability indicator, is a measure of the spread of economic activity (an economic measure), as well as the amount and variation in habitat types (an ecological measure) of a region. In terms of economic diversity, there was relatively little change from the baseline share of employment resulting from either development scenario. Stimulating the tourism industry resulted in a slight decrease in economic diversity, while the increasing final demand for processed vegetables resulted in a slightly more even spread of employment across industries.

Ecologic
Converting land from wild habitat to other uses decreases the ecological diversity of the region. In this study, it is assumed that any new land brought into urban or agricultural uses is removed from the pool of wildland habitat. Granted, economic growth will result in the conversion of some lands from wildland to other uses, the degree to which lands will be substituted among uses is not detectable using this model. The model assumes that no substitution occurs, resulting in a probable over-allocation of lands from wildland to urban and agricultural uses. Not allowing for substitution, the model indicates that 30,000 more acres will be converted to other uses through increases in vegetable processing than through increases in tourism. If we allow no conversion into agricultural uses and require the new crop mix be created through crop substitution, then the impact of the vegetable processing scenario on wildland habitat acreage is relatively small. In this case, only 28 acres are converted for seasonal housing and lodging units through the vegetable processing scenario, compared to 468 acres used for these purposes in the tourism scenario. Since substitution into seasonal housing and lodging units from other urban uses is more difficult than is substituting among crops, the latter situation is a more likely scenario, i.e., conversion is more likely to arise from urban uses than from agricultural uses.

Stability

Economic
Stability implies that economic and ecologic systems can be sustained over time. Economic stability is an inverse measure of variation in employment over time by sector. The two development scenarios each had different effects on employment shares among the various economic sectors. The cumulative effect of the shift in employment shares results in a change in the portfolio variance of employment for the economy as a whole. The shift in sectoral employment share resulting from an increase in tourism decreases overall instability (increase stability) by 20.8 percent. By comparison, the decrease in instability (increase in stability) resulting from an enhanced vegetable processing sector is less at 9.15 percent. Hence, greater economic stability is brought about from the direct, indirect, and induced impacts of tourism than through vegetable processing.

Ecologic
Ecologic stability is a measure of the rate of consumption of a renewable resource (in this case, groundwater) with respect to its rate of regeneration. Using the ratio of groundwater consumption to recharge as a measure of ecologic stability, neither scenario is predicted to become ecologically unstable with respect to this resource. The lower Yorktown-Eastover aquifer recharges at a rate of approximately 4,000 million gallons per year. Even if we assume that all fresh water is derived from this source (most irrigation and private domestic use is supplied by the shallower Columbia aquifer), the ratio of consumption to recharge in both scenarios remains below 0.50.

A Sustainability Index

A common problem that arises when using more rather than less information for decision making is the difficulty in assembling the information in such a way as to make it useful and understandable. One solution is to collapse the information into an index. Table 1 contains index values derived for each sustainability indicator.

Table 1. Sustainability Index Values for Travel and Tourism,
and Vegetable Processing Scenarios, Northampton County, VA.

  Productivity Diversity Stability Sustainability Index (sum)
Scenario Econ. Ecol. Econ. Ecol. Econ. Ecol.  
Tourism 14.64 -7.74 -2.02 -0.14 20.81 -0.21 25.33
Veg.Process 24.07 -14.95 2.51 -2.57 9.15 -1.82 16.40

Summing across the rows in Table 1 gives a single sustainability index value. This value compares each development alternative to the baseline "without development" alternative. As measured in this study, the nature-based tourism scenario achieves a higher sustainability index score than does the vegetable processing scenario, i.e., it is a more sustainable development alternative. The difference between the two scenarios lies mostly in the ecological measures of sustainability. The vegetable processing scenario produces more effluents, results in more land conversion, and uses more water than does the tourism scenario. The two also differ in measures of economic stability, leading to a higher overall sustainability score for tourism.

References

  1. Smutko, L.S., L. Danielson, and T.G. Johnson. 1993. The Feasibility and Economic Potential of Sustainable Development for Northampton County, Virginia. A report to Northampton County Board of Supervisors Sustainable Development Task Force, Eastville, VA.
  2. Nature Conservancy. (no date). Measures of Success: Proposed "Sustainability Scorecard". Internal Memorandum, Arlington, VA: The Nature Conservancy.
  3. Commission on Environment and Development (WECD). 1987. Our Common Future. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
L. Steven Smutko
Extension Specialist
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina


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