North Carolina State University
Soybean Rust Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: Some additional reports from various areas have arrived in the last two days. These include the first report from Illinois (Pope County in the far southern part of the state), Fulton County in far western KY, and others near the existing source regions in LA, AL, and NC. At this time, rust has been found on soybeans in 98 counties in 10 different states (AL, FL, GA, IL, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, and TX). The county total jumps to 120 when infections on kudzu are included. State totals: 13 in Alabama; 18 in Florida and South Carolina ; 24 in Louisiana; 15
in Georgia; 3 in Texas and Mississippi; 17 in North Carolina; 8 in
Kentucky, and 1 in Illinois. ***
Forecast Summary: Friday, October 20
Weather: Friday, October 20 - Gulf Coast / Southern U.S.: Cold front is moving off the south-Atlantic coast today with the trailing end across northern FL and the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is building in from the west and will move toward the Atlantic coast Saturday and Sunday. Dry weather under sunny to partly cloudy skies region-wide today, though a stray shower may occur over the FL peninsula. On Saturday and Sunday ... the cold front over the Gulf will drift back north toward the coast, while a cold front in the high Plains pushes south and east toward the region on Saturday and through the region on Sunday. Chance of showers for the Gulf Coast increasing through the weekend. Dry most other areas Saturday, with a chance of showers Saturday night and/or Sunday as the Plains front passes. Highs in the 70's and 80's today, mostly 60's and 70's Saturday and Sunday, though much of FL will be in the 80's each day.
***** Forecasts are abbreviated today *****
Friday: Low risk to susceptible plants.
Saturday: Moderate Risk for susceptible plants near the sources in southeast TX, LA, southwest MS, and northward through AR and the mid-MS River valley. Weakly Moderate Risk for FL, GA, AL, southeast MS. Low Risk otherwise.
Sunday: Strongly Moderate Risk for susceptible plants near all the source regions, except for Moderate Risk in central and southern FL.
*** 16 October: With the frosts and freezes that occurred late last week and this past weekend, forecasts for the remainder of the season will essentially be confined to the southern U.S., basically the Deep South / lower MS Valley states and portions of NC, TN, and AR that have not yet experienced a frost or freeze. Given the recent weather, we expect very little to no contribution to any new disease development from the recent finds in western KY and southern IL. ***
TK
- Central and southern FL
- Northern FL
- Southeast AL / southwest GA / eastern FL panhandle
- Southwest AL / southeast MS
- Central and southern LA / southwest MS / southeast TX
- SC / eastern GA
- Eastern NC
- Western KY / southern IL / southeast MO / northwest TN