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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - July 10: New counties in NC, MD, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Pitt County, NC, Dorchester County, MD, and Ottawa County, OH. The southern TX source has been dropped as observations do not indicate presence of downy mildew in that area (season over). Also, the eastern MD forecast for July 8 was inadvertantly omitted from the forecast. It has been restored. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
*** Epidemic Update - July 8: First report from Maryland. New Counties in OH and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Caroline County, MD. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Friday, July 10, 2009
Weather - Continental U.S. / southern Canada: Active weather associated with a frontal system moving from the Midwest into the eastern U. S. / southern Canada; showers parts of the Southeast; mostly dry otherwise. A fairly potent frontal system will progress from the upper Lakes / Plains into the lower Lakes / Northeast / Ohio Valley and finally settle to a lower mid-Atlantic / TN Valley / central Plains position by Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will accompany the front. A few summertime PM showers will occur in parts of the Southeast / Gulf Coast. Summertime heat present this weekend with a warming trend. Highs in the 70's/80's North transitioning to 90's and 100's south-central and southwest U.S. Lows mostly 60's and 70's.
OUTLOOK:
Friday through Sunday:
Southern Ontario / northwest OH sources: Transport events move north and northeast today, east and southeast on Saturday, east on Sunday. Saturday is the greatest day of interest as conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and deposition. Friday ... Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwest OH and eastern MI. Saturday ... HIGH Risk for southern Ontario and northern OH. Moderate Risk for southeast MI, western PA, and western NY. Low Risk otherwise Friday and Saturday. Sunday ... Low Risk to cucurbits.
Southeast / mid-Atlantic sources: Impact from some of the weekend's transport events will be felt near the sources, Friday and Saturday in Southeast and Sunday in the mid-Atlantic. Conditions on other days will be unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Friday ... Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, northern FL, and southern GA. Weakly Moderate Risk for the western panhandle and southern AL. Low Risk otherwise. Saturday ... Weakly Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, and the eastern panhandle. Low Risk otherwise. Sunday ... Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NC, southeast VA, and DE. Low Risk otherwise.
LA / CA sources: Transport events from southern LA move northeast the next two days and ENE on Sunday. Some short-range transport is possible Sunday, though the weather in this region will be mostly unfavorable each day. Friday and Saturday ... Weakly Moderate Risk for cucurbits near the source counties. Sunday ... Weakly Moderate Risk for south-central and southeast LA and southwest MS. Low Risk otherwise. Events out of CA will be dominated by unfavorable conditions as they move southeast. Low Risk to cucurbits from these events.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK