Please Help Us Improve Our Website
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - July 1: First report from Ohio. New County in VA. CDM has been confirmed in Sandusky County, OH and Virginia Beach, VA. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
*** Epidemic Update - June 29: First report from southern Ontario, Canada. New reports from NC and VA. CDM has been confirmed in Chatham-Kent County in southern Ontario; Bertie, Hertford, Duplin, and New Hanover counties in NC; and near Petersburg in VA. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Friday, July 3, 2009
Weather - Continental U.S. / southern Canada: Unsettled weather in the lower Lakes / Northeast diminishing with time. Rain / showers / storms spreading from the Plains eastward Friday / Saturday, settling over the South by Sunday. A few showers Rockies; dry otherwise. The frontal system stalled over parts of the Southeast will rise north and meet up with energy now impacting the Plains. As waves of low pressure ride along the front, it will setting across the southern States by Sunday. Meanwhile, cloudiness and showers affecting the Lakes / Northeast will be moving off to the north and east as the weekend progresses. Highs in the 60's and 70's across the northern areas, otherwise 80's to 100's expected with cooler conditions to the north of the main frontal system. Lows in the 50's to 70's.
OUTLOOK:
Friday through Sunday:
Southern Ontario / northwest OH source: Friday's and Saturday's transport events are of interest, with mixed conditions expected for each event. It appears that long-range threat is Low; today's event chases the rain and only briefly catches it, while Saturday's event looks to impact only the source region. Unfavorable conditions for Sunday's event. Friday ... Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northeastern OH and western PA. Saturday ... Moderate Risk for southeast MI and northwest OH.Low Risk otherwise.
Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic sources: Events from all sources are trekking somewhere between ENE and ESE each day. Favorable conditions over the FL peninsula persist, with more variable weather elsewhere. Unfavorable conditions for two days in the Carolinas / southeast VA will give way to much more favorable weather by Sunday. Strongly Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern and central FL each day. Elsewhere ... Friday ... Moderate Risk for the eastern panhandle and northern FL. Saturday ... Weakly Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL. Sunday ... Strongly Moderate Risk for southeast VA and eastern NC. Moderate Risk for eastern NC. Weakly Moderate Risk for southern GA, northern FL, the FL panhandle, and southern AL. Low Risk otherwise.
LA / TX / CA sources: Conditions are unfavorable for the transport events from these areas. A shower near the LA source or TX source may lead to localized disease development, but otherwise these are low threat events dominated by unfavorable conditions. Low Risk to cucurbits from these events.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK