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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - July 1: First report from Ohio. New County in VA. CDM has been confirmed in Sandusky County, OH and Virginia Beach, VA. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
*** Epidemic Update - June 29: First report from southern Ontario, Canada. New reports from NC and VA. CDM has been confirmed in Chatham-Kent County in southern Ontario; Bertie, Hertford, Duplin, and New Hanover counties in NC; and near Petersburg in VA. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Weather - Continental U.S. / southern Canada: Mostly dry; active weather Great Lakes into the Northeast; scattered to numerous showers FL, showers possible portions of Rockies / Plains. The weather picture remains much as it was earlier this week. An upper-level Low now over the Great Lakes will be moving slowly east. Impulses riding around the Low will feed clouds and showers for the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and adjacent areas of southern Canada. A surface cold front stretches from southern Ontario southward through the mid-Atlantic then curves westward over the southern tier. This front will move slowly south and east, though there is little precip associated with it in most locations. Highs in the 60's and 70's Lakes, Northeast, and Rockies. Hot otherwise with highs in the 80's to low 100's. Lows in the 50's to 70's.
OUTLOOK:
Wednesday and Thursday:
Southern Ontario / northwest OH source: Mostly favorable conditions in this region and during the transport events Wednesday and Thursday. Events are moving ESE to southeast. Wednesday ... Strongly Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern Ontario and northern OH; Moderate Risk for western PA. Thursday ... Strongly Moderate Risk for southern Ontario, northern and eastern OH, and western PA; Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central PA; Weakly Moderate Risk for MD and DE; Low Risk otherwise Wednesday and Thursday.
Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic sources: Transport events are moving ENE to northeast the next two days. Outside of the FL peninsula, recent dry weather and spore death from solar exposure are high hindrances to source strength and survivable transport, reducing the threat to other regions. HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and central FL each day. Low Risk otherwise.
LA / TX / CA sources: Conditions are unfavorable for the transport events from these areas, none of which approach other growing regions. Low Risk to cucurbits from these events.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK