Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - June 5: First report from NC in 2009. CDM has been confirmed in Franklin County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
*** Epidemic Update - June 3: New report from Suwannee County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Friday, June 5, 2009
Weather - southern U.S.: Showers and storms across the Southeast; continued hot and dry in TX. A stationary front extending along the mid-Atlantic coast southward across the Carolinas, Georgia, and the FL panhandle will drift slowly offshore this weekend. Locations in the vicinity and to the south of this boundary will see continued soggy weather. High pressure located over the Midwest will build slowly eastward, allowing inland locations to dry out over the course of the weekend. Hot and dry over Texas with highs in the upper 90's and lows in the 70's. Continued warm elsewhere with highs in the 80's / lower 90's, lows in the 60's / 70's.
OUTLOOK:
Friday through Sunday:
FL/GA sources:
Transport events are generally moving to the north/northeast each day. Plentiful rain over FL is resulting in washout of spores early in the transport event on Friday and likely again on Saturday, so long-range transport and deposition is unlikely for those sources. However, conditions are favorable for disease spread in the vicinity of existing infections.
Friday: High Risk to cucurbits in northern and central FL and southeastern GA. Strongly Moderate Risk for southern FL. Moderate Risk for southern SC. Low Risk otherwise.
Saturday: High Risk to cucurbits for the entire FL peninsula and southern GA. Moderate Risk for southern SC. Low Risk otherwise.
Sunday: High Risk to cucurbits in southern and central FL. Moderate Risk for nortnern FL and southern GA. Low Risk otherwise.
Louisburg, NC source:
Transport events are varied each day. Survivable transport and deposition is most likely on Friday. However, given the trajectories and forecast conditions, long-range transport is unlikely each day.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday: High Risk to cucurbits in northeastern NC on Friday. Moderate Risk near the source on Sunday. Low Risk otherwise.
TX source:
Hot and dry conditions will persist, so survivable transport and deposition is very unlikely from this source.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday: Low Risk to cucurbits in TX each day.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK