North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast

Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Strong Autumn cold front continues its push south and east. Showers this afternoon in the upper Ohio Valley and Midwest will be spreading into the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and lower Ohio valley on Thursday. With the southern end of the front moving more slowly, showers in the southern Plains will be moving into the lower MS Valley. As is common in the Fall, there are significant temperature differences on opposing sides of the front. Expect drops of 15-25 degrees after the frontal passage in most areas. Highs ahead of the front in the 70's and 80's with only 50's and 60's behind. Lows 50's and 60's ahead, 30's and 40's behind.

OUTLOOK

Wednesday and Thursday - Elevated risks accompany the frontal system on its trek to the south and east.

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Wednesday: HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern OH and southern and eastern TX. Strongly Moderate Risk for central and eastern OK, east-central and northeast IN. Moderate Risk for western PA and western LA. Low Risk otherwise.

Thursday: HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern TX, central and southern LA, southwest MS, south-central and eastern KY, and TN except for the northeast. Strongly Moderate Risk for OH, southwest and south-central PA, northern NJ, and Long Island. Moderate Risk for eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, southern NJ, northern MS, northern AL, northern GA, western NC, and south-central TX. Low Risk otherwise.

Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.

TK

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Current Sources / source regions:

• Southern GA / FL panhandle
• Northern FL
• Charleston, SC
• Eastern NC / southeast VA
• DelMarVa / eastern MD / NJ / eastern PA
• Southern and Eastern TX
• LA and southwest MS
• Southeast MI / northern and central OH, northwest PA
• West-central and western NC; York County, SC; Union County, GA
• Southwest and central PA
• Fortville, IN
• Long Island
• Oklahoma
• Western and central TN, central KY
• Eastern KY / eastern TN
• Southern FL