North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast

Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Showers and thunderstorms in the Plains Monday, moving into the Mississippi Valley Tuesday. Mostly sunny and dry to the east. A strong frontal system will impact the Plains and MS Valley with showers and storms. Strong high pressure centered over southeast Canada will keep the eastern U.S. dry early this week. Scattered showers are expected in and near FL. Highs mostly 70's and 80's with some 50's and 60's Northeast. Lows mostly 50's and 60's with upper 20's to 40's Northeast and northern Plains. Frosts / freezes have occurred over portions of the North and more are expected the next two nights.

OUTLOOK

Monday and Tuesday - Significantly elevated risks for portions of the Plains and MS Valley in association with the cold front. The source regions in WI, MI, southern Ontario, and western NY have experienced frosts and/or freezes. Forecasting for these areas has ended for 2008.

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Monday: HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern TX, OK, and southeast KS. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central TX, LA, southwest MS, southern AR, northern OH, Long Island, southern New England, southern GA, and northern FL. Low Risk otherwise.

Tuesday: HIGH Risk for cucurbits in east TX, LA, southeast OK, and southern MS. Strongly Moderate Risk for western TN, western KY, southeast MO, southern IL. Moderate Risk for southern TX, central and southern AL, central MS, central KY, southern IN, northern FL, southern GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk otherwise.

Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.

TK

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Current Sources / source regions:

• Southern GA / FL panhandle
• Northern FL
• Charleston, SC
• Eastern NC / southeast VA
• DelMarVa / eastern MD / NJ / eastern PA
• Southern and Eastern TX
• LA and southwest MS
• Southeast MI / northern and central OH, northwest PA
• West-central and western NC; York County, SC; Union County, GA
• Southwest and central PA
• Fortville, IN
• Southern New England (CT, MA) / Long Island
• Oklahoma
• Western and central TN, central KY
• Eastern KY / eastern TN