North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 27 August: New county in MI, updates from existing areas. Downy mildew has been confirmed in a large commercial field of cucumber in Cass County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
*** Epidemic Update - 25 August: New counties in FL and MA. Downy mildew has been confirmed in a large commercial field in Hampshire County, MA and in an extension demonstration plot in Jackson County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Rains spread into the mid-Atlantic / lower Lakes / Northeast as Fay's remnants move northeast. Heavy rain is anticipated for some areas of the Southeast plagued by persistent drought, mostly on Wednesday. Rain / showers will push toward the lower Lakes later today and Thursday. Scattered afternoon showers are expected for some areas of the southern U.S. New England and some of the Plains will remain dry. A cold front in the northern Plains will move eastward toward the Lakes on Thursday, though it's effects won't likely be felt until later in that day. Highs in the 70's and 80's with a few 90's Plains. Lows from the 50's to the 70s'.
OUTLOOK
Wednesday and Thursday - Highest risks to cucurbits from the lower Great Lakes southward through the southern Appalachian Mountains / NC. Many transport events are moving north or northwest, influenced by the leftover circulation of TS Fay and high pressure centered over southern Quebec.
Eastern Coast / northern U.S. / southern Canada:
Wednesday: HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northwest SC, NC, southern VA, northeast TN, eastern OH, western PA, and southern Ontario. Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, the coastal plains of SC, DE, MD, WV, northern VA, southern NJ, central and southeast PA, and western NY. Low Risk otherwise.
Thursday: HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northwest SC, NC, southeast and south-central VA, DE, MD, northern VA, southern NJ, PA except the northeast sections, and the western half of NY. Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, the coastal plains of SC, northeast PA, eastern OH, and southern Ontario. Low Risk otherwise.
TX / LA / IN sources: Weakly Moderate Risk Wednesday and Thursday for cucurbits near the sources in TX and LA. Weakly Moderate Risk for south-central IN for Wednesday's transport events. Low Risk otherwise.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK
- Southern GA / northern FL
- Charleston, SC
- Eastern NC / southeast VA
- DelMarVa peninsula / NJ / eastern PA
- Southeast TX / western and southeast LA
- Western and central MI
- Southern Ontario / southeast MI / northern and central OH, northwest PA
- Western NY / southern Quebec
- Canton and Woodleaf, NC; York County, SC
- Southwest and central PA
- Fortville, IN
- Southern New England (CT, MA)