North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 23 July: First reports from MD, VA, and the southern Appalachian Mountains. Downy Mildew has been discovered in Suffolk and Virginia Beach Counties in VA, Wicomico County in eastern MD, and Haywood County in western NC. Reports are from a mix of sentinel plots and commercial fields, all on cucumber. We also have some sentinel plot updates. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
*** Epidemic Update - 21 July: Field reports from new counties in Ohio; sentinel plot update. Downy Mildew has been confirmed in Knox and Sandusky Counties in OH. One is a small garden discovery, the other is from a small field. Both are on cucumber. We also have a sentinel plot update from southern Ontario. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Highly active weather in the East and South the next two days. An un-seasonably amplified weather pattern is steering a cold front toward the Atlantic Coast and the southern U.S., where it will stall out with its tail end in the central Plains. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy and showers and thunderstorms are scattered to numerous from the lower Lakes and Northeast down the eastern Seaboard and across the southern U.S. today. Meanwhile, Hurricane Dolly came ashore in deep South TX this afternoon, bringing heavy rains and winds. She will continue west. Mostly dry elsewhere on Wednesday. More of the same on Thursday with drier weather for some areas as the front sags a little farther to the south and east. Temperatures in the 80's and 90's ahead of the front, 70's and 80's behind.
OUTLOOK
Wednesday and Thursday - Favorable conditions for epidemic spread both days; northeastern U.S. / southern Quebec getting hit from two directions during Wednesday's events.
Texas / Louisiana / Mississippi: Transport directions are mixed during midweek. Highest risks will be near the sources where the greater chances of rain occur.
Wednesday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for eastern and southern TX, LA, southern MS, and southwest AL. Thursday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast and east-central TX, LA, southern MS, and southwest AL. Moderate Risk for southern AR and northern MS. Low Risk otherwise Wednesday and Thursday.
All other sources: Transport events out of the northern sources are moving anywhere from southeast to northeast. Events from the Southeast and mid-Atlantic sources are tracking northeast. Conditions for almost all of these events are favorable for survivable transport and deposition. There will be fewer areas at risk for Thursday's events compared to Wednesday's.
Wednesday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern GA, northern FL, eastern and northwest SC, southwest, central, and eastern NC; eastern VA, MD, DE, NJ, PA, Long Island, NY, western CT, western MA, VT, southern Quebec, southern Ontario, and northeast OH. Moderate Risk for southeast MI, northwest and north-central OH, and the remainder of the New England states. Low risk otherwise.
Thursday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern GA, northern FL, coastal plains of SC, eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, southern Ontario, western and northern NY, and southern Quebec. Low Risk otherwise.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK