North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 21 July: Field reports from new counties in Ohio; sentinel plot update. Downy Mildew has been confirmed in Knox and Sandusky Counties in OH. One is a small garden discovery, the other is from a small field. Both are on cucumber. We also have a sentinel plot update from southern Ontario. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
*** Epidemic Update - 18 July: New reports from many areas. Downy Mildew has been discovered in new counties in southern Ontario, northeast Ohio, southeastern NC, and southeastern LA. Reports are from a mix of sentinel plots and commercial fields, involving cucumber, cantaloupe, and watermelon. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
Forecast Summary: Monday, July 21, 2008
Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Highly unsettled weather across the North; hot and mostly dry elsewhere with some showers possible Gulf Coast. The cold front that now lies over the northern areas of interest will begin dropping south and east over the next two days, becoming aligned along the Atlantic coast and westward through the lower mid-Atlantic / TN Valley / central Plains by midweek. Showery, wet weather is expected from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Tropcial Storm Dolly is in the western Gulf. She is forecast to strengthen and bring significant impact to parts of TX by midweek. South of the above-mentioned cold front, it will be sunny to partly cloudy, hot, and mostly dry for the next two days. Isolated to scattered pop-up style showers will occur in some areas each day, mainly near the Gulf Coast. Highs in the 90's to 100's most areas (south of the cold front), with some 70's and 80's to the north of the front. Lows in the 70's with some 50's and 60's to the north. Tropical Storm Cristobal has exited the weather picture with little fanfare.
OUTLOOK
Monday and Tuesday - Transport and deposition likely to the south and east of the northern sources early this week.
Southeast / mid-Atlantic sources: Transport events move to the east and/or northeast each day. Conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. A shower near the sources may aid localized disease development. Monday and Tuesday: Low risk to cucurbits in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions.
Texas / Louisiana / Mississippi: Movement of the various transport events will be to the north on Monday with a mixture of directions on Tuesday. Transport out of the Gulf Coast region is unlikely. Increased clouds and a chance of showers are expected on Tuesday while Monday's conditions are unfavorable.
Monday and Tuesday: Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, western and southeast LA, and southern MS on Tuesday. Low Risk otherwise.
MI / southern Ontario / northern OH / western NY: Transport events are moving generally to the east and southeast early this week. Condition will be mostly favorable to favorable for nearly all of these events, which have the potential to impact cucurbits across the northern U.S. and southern Canada.
Monday: HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern MI, southern Ontario, northern and eastern OH, western PA, and western and central NY. Moderate Risk for central and eastern PA, MD, DE, NJ, all of eastern and southeast NY, Long Island, and western sections of CT and MA. Low risk otherwise.
Tuesday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast MI, southern Ontario, OH, PA, and all of NY but the southeast. Moderate Risk for southern Quebec. Low Risk otherwise.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK