North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 18 July: New reports from many areas. Downy Mildew has been discovered in new counties in southern Ontario, northeast Ohio, southeastern NC, and southeastern LA. Reports are from a mix of sentinel plots and commercial fields, involving cucumber, cantaloupe, and watermelon. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
*** Epidemic Update - 16 July: Home garden discoveries and sentinel plot updates. Downy Mildew has been observed in home gardens in eastern NC and western LA. Both of these small outbreaks are near known sources. There are also updates from sentinel plots in Charleston, SC and Vernon Parish, LA. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
Forecast Summary: Friday, July 18, 2008
Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Unsettled along the south Atlantic coast and across the northern areas through the weekend; more benign weather elsewhere. The two main weather features for the next three days are a frontal system draped across the northern U.S. / southern Canada and an area of low pressure off the GA coast that will be moving up the south-Atlantic Seaboard. Clouds and rain / showers will be associated with these two systems. The Low in the Southeast may undergo further development as a tropical or sub-tropical system. Mostly dry elsewhere, though there may be some showers along the Gulf Coast each day. Warm to hot this weekend, with 80's and 90's for Highs nearly everywhere and 60's and 70's for Lows.
OUTLOOK
Friday through Sunday - Significantly elevated risks across the northern areas and along the south Atlantic coast.
Southeast / mid-Atlantic sources: Much will depend on the strength and movement of the offshore Low, but transport and deposition out of these regions is not expected. Events are being heavily influenced by the circulation of the low pressure area. Conditions will be generally favorable near the coast, less favorable inland, and will be improving from south to north as the days progress. Friday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, central and eastern SC, and south-central and southeast NC. Saturday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern SC and eastern NC. Moderate Risk for central SC and central NC. Sunday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern NC. Low risk otherwise.
Texas / Louisiana / Mississippi: Transport events will move north to northeast at varying speeds each day. Conditions away from the sources areas will be unfavorable in each case; mostly unfavorable conditions (partly cloudy, 20% chance of showers) are expected each day near the sources.
Friday through Sunday: Weakly Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, western and southeast LA, southern MS, and southwest AL. Low Risk otherwise.
MI / southern Ontario / northeast OH / western NY: Transport events move east to ENE Friday and Saturday, slowly south or southeast on Sunday. Mixed conditions for most events on Friday, with conditions becoming mostly favorable to favorable Saturday and Sunday.
Friday: Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central MI, all of NY except for southern counties near the PA and NJ borders, and all of New England except for northern ME and Long Island. Low risk otherwise.
Saturday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern MI, southern Ontario, all of NY except for southern counties near the PA and NJ borders, and all of New England except for northern ME and Long Island. Low Risk otherwise.
Sunday: Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern MI, southern Ontario, northern OH, northeast IN, northwest PA, and western NY. Low Risk otherwise.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK