North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 16 July: Home garden discoveries and sentinel plot updates. Downy Mildew has been observed in home gardens in eastern NC and western LA. Both of these small outbreaks are near known sources. There are also updates from sentinel plots in Charleston, SC and Vernon Parish, LA. Please see the Epidemic History page for more details.
*** Epidemic Update - 14 July: Two more reports from North Carolina. Downy Mildew has been discovered in 2 additional counties in eastern NC: Nash (commercial field cucumber) and Johnston (sentinel plot - cucumber). These infections are also of recent origin.
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Unsettled along the south Atlantic coast into FL; Variable weather across the far north; Mostly dry elsewhere. Scattered to numerous showers will fire in the Southeast due to the remains of a stalled front and a low pressure area that has developed nearby in the Gulf. High pressure covers much of our regions of interest the next two days, with sunny to partly cloudy skies and no rain. A cold front along the international border will create variable weather across the North for the next several days as it wobbles north and south over time. Temperatures will run near to or above normal most locations.
OUTLOOK
Wednesday and Thursday - Low threat events from most sources with some elevated risks in the far North and Southeast.
Southeast / mid-Atlantic sources: Transport and deposition out of these regions is not expected. Events are moving southwest on Wednesday, variably on Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday: Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, northern FL, southeast AL, southern GA, and the coastal plains of SC. Low risk otherwise.
Texas / Louisiana / Mississippi: Transport events will move northwest and north the next two days. Unfavorable conditions will be dominant save for a chance of showers near the TX source on Wednesday.
Wednesday and Thursday: Weakly Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX on Wednesday. Low Risk otherwise.
MI / southern Ontario / northeast OH / western NY: Transport events move east to northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Unfavorable conditions early in most events will result in more Low Threats than not; mixed conditions near the lower Lakes will raise the risk in that region. Wednesday: Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern Ontario and western NY. Low risk otherwise. Thursday: Moderate Risk for cucurbits in western and central NY. Low Risk otherwise.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK