North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 4 July: First report of CDM in Michigan in 2008. A light, very recent infection was discovered earlier this week in a field in Monroe County. Also, we have updates on the sentinel plots in FL. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. Forecast locations have been rearranged to account for the current status of the epidemic. ***
*** Epidemic Update - 1 July: New reports from eastern SC - commercial field in Williamsburg County and sentinel plot in Sumter County. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Monday, July 7, 2008
Weather - Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada: Daily scattered showers and storms East Coast and Gulf Coast; active weather across the North late Monday into Tuesday. A wet summertime pattern is still in place in the East and across the far South; partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms each day. Coverage should be lessening with time as compared to this past weekend's activity. A cold front is moving into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes areas today, exerting more influence to the east and south tonight and Tuesday. Highs in the 80's and 90's with some 70's north; lows mostly in the 60's and 70's.
OUTLOOK
Monday and Tuesday - Significant potential for transport and deposition along the Atlantic Seaboard; impact of other events more limited early this week.
Southeast sources: Transport events are moving to the northeast each day. Conditions will be mixed to favorable during these events. Cucurbits in northern FL, southern and central GA, central and eastern sections of the Carolinas, central and eastern VA will be at Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk Monday and Tuesday. Cucurbits in northern GA, western SC, western NC, MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England will be at Moderate Risk for Monday and Tuesday's events. Low risk otherwise.
Texas / Louisiana: Transport events curve to the north and east each day. Unfavorable conditions to the north of the source areas (solar exposure) should hold at bay the threat of long-range transport and deposition. Monday and Tuesday: Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits near the source areas each day. Low Risk otherwise.
Southeast MI / southern Canada: Transport events from this region move northeast. Solar exposure killed most airborne spores after release today, before significant cloud cover could move in. Tuesday's conditions will be favorable, though the risk will be concentrated near the sources. Low Risk to cucurbits on Monday. Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk to cucurbits in southeast MI, northern OH, and southern Ontario on Tuesday. Low Risk otherwise.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK