North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: Downy Mildew has been discovered in Marion County, FL. Please consult the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Friday, May 16, 2008
Weather - Southeast U.S. / Eastern Gulf of Mexico: Scattered to numerous showers and storms eastern Gulf coast / southern GA / northern FL on Friday; isolated to scattered showers central FL Saturday and Sunday; scattered showers possible northern sections on Sunday; mostly dry otherwise. A cold front moving through the region today is driving the active weather in the deep South. The front will stall over central FL during the weekend. Sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere on Friday with scattered showers possible eastern half of the Carolinas. Mostly dry Saturday except for the chance of rain in central FL. A cold front will swing through the northern sections on Sunday accompanied by a chance of showers. Isolated to scattered showers possible near the stalled front in FL and mostly dry weather elsewhere on Sunday. Highs in the 80's with some 70's north each day. Lows in the 50's and 60's.
OUTLOOK
Given the lack of decent rainfall in this region over the past month, disease activity is likely subdued.
Transport events from the (now 5) known source areas move east or ENE each day for the next 3 days. The threat of long-range transport and deposition to other growing regions is minimal. Localized disease development or short-range transport west-to-east across the peninsula are possible Saturday and Sunday. By day:
Friday: Conditions are either unfavorable for survivable transport (southern FL sources) or the transport events will be offshore by the time any rain would possibly fall after some degree of spore survival (central FL sources). Low Risk to cucurbits for Friday's events.
Saturday and Sunday: Unfavorable conditions are dominant in southern FL, though some localized disease development is possible if a stray shower (<20% chance) falls in the right location. Mixed conditions are expected in central FL near the stalled front. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central FL Saturday and Sunday. Low Risk otherwise.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK