North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Weather - Southeast U.S. / Eastern Gulf of Mexico: Warm and mostly dry Wednesday; showery weather moving over the mainland Thursday. Sunny to partly cloudy over most of the region today. Some clouds and a few showers for the northwesternmost areas this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is slowly moving southeast toward the region. Increased cloudiness and rain or scattered showers pressing east on Thursday and Thursday night. Some significant rain is possible for portions of AL and GA on Thursday. However, most of the FL peninsula will remain parched. Even when the front enters the region later this week, amounts for the peninsula look quite light. Widespread 80's today for highs, 70's and 80's on Thursday. Lows in the 50's and 60's.
OUTLOOK
Given the dearth of decent rainfall in this region over the past several weeks, disease activity has likely diminished.
Transport events on Wednesday are moving north from all sources. These events encounter more favorable conditions by Thursday. However, abundant sunshine should kill any airborne spores this afternoon that were released from these weakish sources. Thursday's transport events move northeast from each source, again doing so under unfavorable conditions for survivable transport. Low Risk to cucurbits near the sources and along the forecast pathways Wednesday and Thursday.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK