North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Forecast Note - 5 May: Downy Mildew has been discovered near Apopka, FL. Please see the Epidemic History page for details. ***
Forecast Summary: Friday, May 9, 2008
Weather - Southeast U.S. / Eastern Gulf of Mexico: Active weather pattern this weekend. Mostly dry Friday; scattered showers central sections Saturday; scattered to numerous showers and storms on Sunday. A cold front is sagging southward through the northern sections of the Southeast today, though most rainfall associated with the front occurred last night. Partly cloudy skies, with some isolated to perhaps scattered showers southern and far eastern areas. The front will stall east-west across central sections on Saturday, then lift back north as a warm front as another low pressure area moving through the Ohio Valley / southern mid-Atlantic drags a cold front through the region on Sunday. Sunny to partly cloudy north and south on Saturday with scattered showers central near the stalled front. Partly to mostly cloudy region-wide on Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Best chance of rain and greatest amounts expected across the northern 1/2 of the Southeast with this next cold front. Highs mostly in the 80's Friday and Saturday, 70's and 80's Sunday. Lows 50's and 60's.
OUTLOOK
Given the dearth of decent rainfall in this region over the past several weeks, disease activity has likely diminished. Transport events move generally ENE from all the sources each day from Friday through Sunday. No long-range threat is expected. Risk of disease development will be localized or short-range and depend on the daily conditions: mostly unfavorable on Friday, unfavorable on Saturday, mixed on Sunday with the cold frontal passage. The Risk to cucurbits in central and southern FL is as follows: Friday - Weakly Moderate east-central and southern FL; Saturday - Weakly Moderate southeast FL; Sunday - Moderate Risk central and southern FL. Low Risk otherwise to U.S. cucurbits Friday through Sunday.
Forecast details for the known sources are provided below.
TK