North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
Date Issued: 12 July 2007
Disease location(s): Medina and Erie Counties, Ohio and Elgin County, Ontario
Trajectory Start: Medina and Milan, Ohio and Aylmer, Ontario
Forecaster: SC
Regional weather: Thursday, July 12 - Central and Eastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada: A dissipating cold front over much of the region and an upper level disturbance is bringing some scattered showers to th, Tennessee River Valley, Ohio River Valley and the Southeast throughout the weekend. This feature may also cause heavy rainfall in areas of OK and TX and possibly AR and LA. Temperatures are beginning to fall for most areas as the showers and cloudy skies move in. Highs in the low-90's and upper 80's south and 70's and 80's north. Lows in the 70's south and 50's and 60's north.
Trajectory weather: Today, mostly sunny skies becoming partly cloudy with a chance for scattered showers. High in the low-80's. Tonight, mostly cloudy. Low in the low-50's. Tomorrow, partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High in the upper 70's.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat on Friday through Sunday. Low threat otherwise. ***
Thursday through Monday: Today, though there is mention of rain later in the forecast the sunny skies will kill most airborne spores. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern OH, the northwestern tip of PA and northern NY. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Friday's event moves southeast and then quickly north. Conditions are mixed for survivable transport and deposition. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern OH and eastern PA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central PA. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise on Friday. Saturday...The event moves northeast into Canada. Conditions are mixed for survivable transport and deposition. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern ON, western and northern NY. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western Quebec. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Sunday's event meanders around the source region before heading northeast. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern OH. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Monday...The event moves northeast ant then east. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits on Monday.