Cucurbit

12 July 2007

North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 12 July 2007
Disease location(s): Duplin, Bertie and Sampson Counties, NC
Trajectory Start: Albertson, Spivey's Corner, Windsor, NC
Forecaster: SC

07/12/07 Eastern NC Forecast Trajectory Plot

Regional weather: Thursday, July 12 - Central and Eastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada: A dissipating cold front over much of the region and an upper level disturbance is bringing some scattered showers to th, Tennessee River Valley, Ohio River Valley and the Southeast throughout the weekend. This feature may also cause heavy rainfall in areas of OK and TX and possibly AR and LA. Temperatures are beginning to fall for most areas as the showers and cloudy skies move in. Highs in the low-90's and upper 80's south and 70's and 80's north. Lows in the 70's south and 50's and 60's north.

Trajectory weather: Today, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the low-90's. Tonight, mostly clear. Low near 70. Tomorrow, partly cloudy skies. High in the upper 80's. There is a 20% chance of showers near the Bertie County source throughout the forecast period.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat Thursday. Moderate threat Friday through Monday. ***

Thursday through Monday: The events for both days move northeast along the Atlantic Coast. Mostly unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition are present today. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern NC on Thursday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Conditions are mixed to favorable for survivable transport and deposition later in the forecast period. Friday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the coastal plains of NC. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Saturday...Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NC and eastern VA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the DelMarVa peninsula, eastern MD, NJ and southern New England. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Sunday...Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NC and southeastern VA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the DelMarVa peninsula and southern NJ. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Monday...Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NC, southestern VA, the DelMarVa peninsula and southern NJ. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond.

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