North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
Date Issued:5 July 2007
Disease location(s): Waller, Victoria and Falls Counties, Texas
Trajectory Start: Hempstead, Victoria, Falls County, Texas
Forecaster: SC
Regional weather: Thursday, July 5 - Central and Eastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada: A slow moving cold front will approach New England and the Mid-Atlantic states today. Scattered showers are possible for these areas as well as areas of the Ohio River Valley. Rain continues to fall in TX and parts of OK today, as well as in FL. Other areas should expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures today. Highs in the 90's south and 70's and 80's north. Lows in the 70's south and 50's and 60's north. Into the weekend...high pressure will re-establish itself in areas affected by the cold front. Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. There is a chance for afternoon thundershowers in some areas. Highs in the 80's and 90's. Lows in the 50's and 60's north and 70's south.
Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rain through the forecast period. High in the 80's, low in the upper 60's.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Serious threat Thursday and Friday. Moderate threat Saturday, Sunday and Monday. ***
Thursday through Monday: Rain continues to fall in TX. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport and deposition. High Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern TX on Thursday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Friday's and Saturday's trajectories moves slightly north and then eastward. Conditions are mixed to favorable throughout this period. High Risk to cucurbits in eastern TX on Friday. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern TX and LA on Saturday. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western LA on Friday. Weakly Moderate risk to cucurbits in southern AR and eastern OK on Saturday. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Sunday and Monday...the events moves north each day. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition are mixed. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern TX on Sunday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern OK. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern half of TX and eastern and central OK on Monday. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond.