Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

5 July 2007

North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 5 July 2007
Disease location(s): Florence, Horry and Clarendon Counties SC
Trajectory Start: Timmonsville, Aynor and Clarendon, SC
Forecaster: SC

07/05/07 Eastern SC Forecast Trajectory Plot

Regional weather: Thursday, June 5 - Central and Eastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada: A slow moving cold front will approach New England and the Mid-Atlantic states today. Scattered showers are possible for these areas as well as areas of the Ohio River Valley. Rain continues to fall in TX and parts of OK today, as well as in FL. Other areas should expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures today. Highs in the 90's south and 70's and 80's north. Lows in the 70's south and 50's and 60's north. Into the weekend...high pressure will re-establish itself in areas affected by the cold front. Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. There is a chance for afternoon thundershowers in some areas. Highs in the 80's and 90's. Lows in the 50's and 60's north and 70's south.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny today with high near 90. Clear to partly cloudy tonight with the chance of showers. Low near 70. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy, 20% chance of rain. High near 90.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat ***

Thursday through Monday: Though there is a chance of rain later in the forecast, today's sunny sky conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits on Thursday. Friday through Monday's transport events move northeast through eastern NC and then up the Atlantic Coast. Conditions are mostly unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition on Friday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern SC and eastern NC on Friday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition for the rest of the forecast period. Low Risk to cucurbits Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

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