North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
Date Issued: 5 July 2007
Disease location(s): Essex County, Ontario, CA and Monroe County, MI
Trajectory Start: Essex County, Ontario, CA and Monroe County, MI
Forecaster: SC

Regional weather: Thursday, July 5 - Central and Eastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada: A slow moving cold front will approach New England and the Mid-Atlantic states today. Scattered showers are possible for these areas as well as areas of the Ohio River Valley. Rain continues to fall in TX and parts of OK today, as well as in FL. Other areas should expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures today. Highs in the 90's south and 70's and 80's north. Lows in the 70's south and 50's and 60's north. Into the weekend...high pressure will re-establish itself in areas affected by the cold front. Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. There is a chance for afternoon thundershowers in some areas. Highs in the 80's and 90's. Lows in the 50's and 60's north and 70's south.
Trajectory weather: Today, partly cloudy skies with a good chance for showers. High in the lower 80's. Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy skies again with a good chance of rain. Low in the 60's. Tomorrow, scattered showers possible, high in the lower 80's.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat Thursday and Monday. Low threat otherwise. ***
Thursday through Monday: Conditions for survivable transport and deposition are mixed today. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern OH and western PA on Thursday. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southeastern PA, southern NJ, northern MD and northern DE. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Friday's event moves southeast and then east. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits on Friday. Saturday's and Sunday's events move slightly north and east. Conditions are unfavorable each day. Low Risk to cucurbits on Saturday and Sunday. Monday's event travelssoutheast and then curls northward. Conditions are mixed for survivable transport and deposition. Moderate Risk to cucurbits around the sources on Monday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern OH and western PA. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise.