Cucurbit

14 June 2007

North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued:14 June 2007
Disease location(s): Hidalgo and Victoria Counties, Texas
Trajectory Start: Edinburg, Texas
Forecaster: SC

06/12/07 Hidalgo Forecast Trajectory Plot

Regional weather: Thursday, June 14- Southern U.S.: A cold front from the Northeast is sagging into the region today. The mix of moisture and warm temperatures will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms for some areas, especially from the North Carolina south through Florida. Meanwhile, a stationary front sitting over the Central Plains region will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas in Oklahoma and northern Texas. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures. Highs ranging from the 70's through 90's, with cooler temperatures in northern areas, lows in the 60's and 70's.

Trajectory weather: Today, partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 90's. Tonight, mostly cloudy, low in the mid-70's. tomorrow partly cloudy with increasing chances of rain along the trajectory. High in the upper 80's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat Thursday through Saturday. Low threat Sunday and Monday. ***

Thursday through Monday: The trajectories move northwest along the TX/ Mexican border and then north through Central TX each day. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport on Thursday and Friday, however there is varying chances for rain throughout the forecast period. Moderate Risk to cucurbits for Central TX on Thursday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits around the Big Bend area. Low risk for cucurbits around the source and otherwise Thursday. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in Central TX and areas in the western part of the panhandle on Friday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Saturday there are mixed to unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in West Central TX and areas south of the panhandle on Saturday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Sunday and Monday conditions are unfavorbale for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits in the source region and beyond on Sunday and Monday.

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