Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

14 June 2007

North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 14 June 2007
Disease location(s): Essex County, Ontario, CA
Trajectory Start: Essex County, Ontario, CA
Forecaster: SC

06/14/07 Essex Forecast Trajectory Plot

Regional weather: Thursday, June 14- Great Lakes Region U.S. / Southern Canada: High pressure continues to dominate the region over the next few days. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Highs in the upper 80's, low in the 60's.

Trajectory weather: Today, sunny to partly cloudy at the source, 20% chance of showers. High in the mid-80's. Tonight, partly cloudy becoming clear. Low near 60. Tomorrow, partly cloudy. High in the lower 80's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat on Sunday. Low threat otherwise. ***

Thursday through Monday: Thursday's event travels west then curves up along Lake Michigan. Friday's event meanders around the source region.Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition, though there is a slight chance of rain around the source region both days. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits around the source region on Thursday and Friday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Saturday and Sunday the events move eastward along the U.S./ Canadian border. Saturday conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits around the source on Saturday. Sunday, there is a chance for scattered showers near the source. Moderate Risk to cucurbits near the source on Sunday. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Monday... the event travels noutheast through Canada. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits on Monday.

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