North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
*** Major changes in the Cucurbit Downy Mildew Epidemic have occurred over the last 5 days. ***
Downy mildew has been discovered in southeastern MI in Monroe County. About 16 acres of cucumbers spread across 2 fields are heavily infected. Confirmation occurred on June 9 but disease has been well established for some time. Both this site and the Decatur County, GA site have been added to the forecasts.
Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Landfall of this system occurred on Tuesday but its presence had great impact on this past weekend's transport events. Re-analysis of the Sunday and Monday transport events indicate that many areas of the Southeast may have had deposition of viable spores. Cucurbit crops along the FL peninsula were at Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk on those two days. Moderate Risk to cucurbit crops occurred across a broad swath of the Southeast, from the western panhandle of FL and southern AL eastward through most of GA and SC and into the southern half of NC. Alberto's effects continue Tuesday and Wednesday, as indicated below.
Forecast Summary: Tuesday, June 13 2006
Weather - Southern / Eastern U.S.: Tropical Storm Alberto's path through the Southeast will bring heavy rains to FL, GA, and the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry, hot conditions are expected over much of the remainder of the south-central and southeastern United States. Mostly dry weather is expected in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley, though isolated to scattered showers are possible in some areas each day. Drier weather is expected in the Southeast later this week.
Tuesday: Clouds and rains associated with Alberto will bring favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Many airborne spores will be deposited near the sources as heavy rain is falling in these locations on Tuesday, but some airborne spores will travel farther north before washout. HIGH Risk on Tuesday for central and northern FL, southeast AL, southern GA, and the eastern panhandle of FL. Strongly Moderate Risk for southern FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbit crops in SC and eastern NC. Mixed conditions near the Great Lakes gives rise to Weakly Moderate Risk for southeast MI and northwest OH. Low Risk otherwise.
Wednesday: Transport events in the Southeast are moving to the ENE. Conditions will remain mostly favorable near the known sources. Strongly Moderate Risk on Wednesday for central and southern FL. Moderate Risk to southeast AL, southern GA, and the FL eastern panhandle. Weakly Moderate Risk once again for southeast MI and northwest OH. Low Risk otherwise.
Transport events out of northern Mexico are Low Threats Tuesday and Wednesday.
*** Detailed forecasts for the Tuesday / Wednesday events will be posted by Wednesday morning. ***
For more specific forecast details, please follow the links for the individual forecast locations.
TK