North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
Forecast Summary: July 12, 2007
***Downy mildew was been reported in Tifton, GA, Gratiot County, MI and Virginia Beach, VA. Please refer to the epidemic history page for more information. ***
Weather--Central and Eastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada: A dissipating cold front over much of the region and an upper level disturbance is bringing some scattered showers to th, Tennessee River Valley, Ohio River Valley and the Southeast throughout the weekend. This feature may also cause heavy rainfall in areas of OK and TX and possibly AR and LA. Temperatures are beginning to fall for most areas as the showers and cloudy skies move in. Highs in the low-90's and upper 80's south and 70's and 80's north. Lows in the 70's south and 50's and 60's north.
Forecasts--Texas Sources: Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition early in the forecast period. By Sunday and Monday the chances for showers are better and therefore the chances for survivable transport and deposition are greater. Low Risk to cucurbits on Thursday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central TX on Friday and eastern TX on Saturday. Sunday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern TX. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central TX, southeastern OK, northwestern LA and western AR. Monday...Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern TX, Deep South TX and southeastern OK. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western AR and southern MO. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits around the Big Bend in TX. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond.
Georgia and the North and South Carolina Sources: The events from these sources move mostly toward and along the Atlantic Coast. Conditions are mixed throughout the forecast period. Thursday...Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern SC, eastern NC, and south-central GA. Friday...Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeastern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NC. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeastern VA and northeastern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Saturday...High Risk to cucurbits in the eastern two-thirds of NC and eastern VA. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern SC and the eastern half of GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the DelMarVa peninsula, MD, and central GA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in NJ, southern New Engalnd and Long Island, NY on Saturday. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Sunday...High Risk to cucurbits in eastern SC and eastern NC. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern VA and the DelMarVa peninsula. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern NJ, eastern GA and central SC on Sunday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Monday...High Risk to cucurbits in eastern NC and eastern SC. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeastern VA, the DelMarVa peninsula and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern MD on Monday. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond.
Other Sources: Events from the remaining, northern areas move either to toward the New England area or north into Canada. Conditions are mixed throughout the forecast period for survivable transport and deposition. There is a better chance for rain on Saturday. Thursday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southeastern MI, southern Ontario, Canada and western NY. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeastern OH, northern NY and the northwestern tip of PA. Friday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and east-central NY, northern OH and eastern PA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western MA, southern VT, southern NH and central PA. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Saturday...High Risk to cucurbits in central and southeastern MI and southern Ontario, Canada. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western Quebec, Canada and western NY. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern NY. Low Risk beyond. Sunday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southeastern NY and norhteastern OH. Monday...Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern NY. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond.
Detailed forecasts for the known sources are provided below.
SC