North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
Forecast Summary: July 5, 2007
Weather--Central and Eastern U.S. and Southeastern Canada: A slow moving cold front will approach New England and the Mid-Atlantic states today. Scattered showers are possible for these areas as well as areas of the Ohio River Valley. Rain continues to fall in TX and parts of OK today, as well as in FL. Other areas should expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures today. Highs in the 90's south and 70's and 80's north. Lows in the 70's south and 50's and 60's north. Into the weekend...high pressure will re-establish itself in areas affected by the cold front. Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. There is a chance for afternoon thundershowers in some areas. Highs in the 80's and 90's. Lows in the 50's and 60's north and 70's south.
Forecasts--Texas Sources: TX continues to experience heavy downpours. The trajectories generally move northward each day. Some may approach OK and eastern areas. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport and deposition early in the forecast period and then become mixed. High Risk to cucurbits in the eastern two-thirds of TX today. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. High Risk to cucurbits in east TX on Friday. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in Deep South TX and central TX. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western LA. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond on Friday. Saturday...Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern TX and LA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern TX, southern AR and eastern OK. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Sunday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern TX. Weakly Moderte Risk to cucurbits in eastern OK and southern TX. Low Risk beyond to cucurbits. Monday...Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the eastern half of TX and southern TX, as well as eastern and central OK. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise.
North and South Carolina Sources: The trajectories from these sources travel north along the Atlantic coast for the most part throughout the forecast period. Conditions are mostly unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeastern VA and the DelMarVa peninsula on Thursday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NC, northeastern SC and southeastern VA on Friday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the southern coastal plains of SC and the coastal plains of NC on Saturday. Low Risk to cucurbits on Sunday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the coastal plains of SC on Monday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise.
Other Sources: Trajectories from the other (more northern) sources move generally east throughout the forecast period. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport and deposition early in the period and then become unfavorable then mixed for the duration. High Risk to cucurbits in central and western NY, western MA, northeastern OH, southern Ontario, Canada, PA and MD on Thursday. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwestern OH, the DelMarVa peninsula and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern CT and northern RI, northern MD and northern DE. Low Risk beyond on Thursday. Friday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in south central and southeastern NY and the northeastern corner of PA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern NJ and Long Island, NY, as well as northwestern PA and western NY. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Saturday...Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern NY, VT and NH on Sunday. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Monday...Moderate Risk to cucurbits in western and central NY, southeastern MI, southwestern Ontario, Canada, northern OH and PA. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern NH and southern VT, MA, northern CT and northern RI and southeastern OH. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond on Monday.
Detailed forecasts for the known sources are provided below.
SC