North Carolina State University
Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecast
Weather--Southern U.S.: A cold front from the Northeast is sagging into the region today. The mix of moisture and warm temperatures will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms for some areas, especially from the North Carolina south through Florida. Meanwhile, a stationary front sitting over the Central Plains region will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to areas in Oklahoma and northern Texas. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures. Highs ranging from the 70's through 90's, with cooler temperatures in northern areas, lows in the 60's and 70's.
Great Lakes Region U.S. / Southern Canada: High pressure continues to dominate the region over the next few days. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Highs in the upper 80's, low in the 60's.
Forecasts--Southern Florida Sources: The trajectories move west and offshore each day. There is a good chance for rain each day, resulting in mixed to favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Strongly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the source region and Southern FL on Thursday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Friday through Monday's events move slightly northward up the western coast of the peninsula. Strongly Moderate Risk for cucurbits around the source and in areas just north of the source region on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in these areas on Monday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise.
Texas Sources: The trajectories move northwest along the TX/ Mexican border and then north through Central TX each day. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport on Thursday and Friday, however there is varying chances for rain throughout the forecast period. Moderate Risk to cucurbits for Central TX on Thursday. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits around the Big Bend area. Low risk for cucurbits around the source and otherwise on Thursday. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in Central TX and areas in the western part of the panhandle on Friday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Saturday there are mixed to unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits in West Central TX and areas south of the panhandle on Saturday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Sunday and Monday conditions are unfavorbale for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits in the source region and beyond on Sunday and Monday.
Ontario, CA Source: We have a new source of downy mildew reported from Essex County in Ontario, Canada (please consult epidemic history page). Thursday's event travels west then curves up along Lake Michigan. Friday's event meanders around the source region. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition, though there is a slight chance of rain around the source region both days. Weakly Moderate Risk to cucurbits around the source region on Thursday and Friday. Low Risk to cucurbits otherwise. Saturday and Sunday the events move eastward along the U.S./ Canadian border. Saturday conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits around the source on Saturday. Sunday, there is a chance for scattered showers near the source. Moderate Risk to cucurbits near the source on Sunday. Low Risk to cucurbits beyond. Monday...the event travels noutheast through Canada. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk to cucurbits on Monday.
Detailed forecasts for the known sources are provided below.
SC