FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, September 25 :
***** Disease Update - 25 September ***** Our thanks to Margaret McGrath in New York.... who informs us of a downy mildew outbreak in Suffolk County, NY near the town of Riverhead (this is in the eastern half of Long Island). This outbreak, of questionable severity, occurred in a 25-acre field of pumpkin. Lesions appeared to be fairly new. A trajectory for this site will be combined with the forecast for the New Jersey site.
***** The Weather...... southern / eastern U.S. ***** Two frontal systems will affect the southern / eastern U.S. over the next 5 days. The first front is moving through today and tonight as it weakens. A slender line of clouds and showers / thunderstorms will accompany its passage, mainly in the Northeast and upper mid-Atlantic. Partly to mostly cloudy in FL / southern GA today and Friday with showers and thunderstorms a good bet in the afternoons and evenings. Mostly cloudy in western and southern TX Thursday and Friday with scattered showers or thunderstorms. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry all other areas. Highs mostly 70's and 80's, lows 50's and 60's. Saturday through Monday..... the second and more vigorous frontal system will come screaming down from southern Canada late Friday, moving through the eastern / southern U.S. on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread with this front. Behind it.... unseasonable cool air will push into the eastern / southern U.S., with dry conditions by Sunday for nearly all locations, continuing on Monday.
Southeast......Conditions will be favorable in the southern sections of this region Thursday and Friday, from southern GA southward through Florida. Strongly Moderate Risk for southern GA and FL each day, especially near the source areas. Mixed conditions in southern GA on Saturday with improving weather Sunday and Monday. Favorable conditions will persist in FL through the weekend.
Lower mid-Atlantic / southern Appalachian Mountains / Ohio Valley ... Unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition are expected Thursday and Friday. The first cold front will be past the south-central IN area on Thursday and is expected to have little impact in the mountains and southern mid-Atlantic as it weakens. Mixed conditions are anticipated for Saturday with the passage of the second cold front. Trajectories will probably be headed to the northeast. The greatest potential for disease development will be found near to and closely northeast of the source areas. Unfavorable conditions return to these regions Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds in behind the cold front.
Upper mid-Atlantic / Northeast .... unfavorable conditions for survivable transport today, as the sources in NJ and NY are far enough ahead of the first cold front. Low Risk to cucurbit crops. The front will linger nearby as it dissipates on Friday, bringing mixed to favorable weather for disease development. Moderate to Strongly Moderate Risk on Friday for DE, NJ, eastern PA, southeast NY, and southern New England. Low Risk otherwise. Unsettled weather continues Saturday and Sunday with the approach and passing of the second cold front. Mixed to favorable conditions are expected. Trajectories will likely move to the northeast. Greatest danger of disease development will be near the source areas. Unfavorable conditions move in on Monday.
Texas.... mixed weather conditions are expected near this source area through the 4 to 5 day period. Partly to mostly cloudy skies, 20 to 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms each day. Trajectories move to the southwest Thursday and Friday. Moderate Risk for cucurbit crops in deep south TX Thursday and Friday.
TK
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Charleston, SC
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.