FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, October 9 :
***** The Weather......
southern / eastern U.S. ***** Unsettled weather will persist across
the South for the next several days. A stationary front stretches
from the coastal Carolinas, across the deep South, and into eastern
and central TX. Active weather will be fed and guided by two main
pieces of upper-atmospheric energy. One piece now along the SC coast
is causing partly to mostly cloudy skies in the Southeast and
southern mid-Atlantic, with showers in the Southeast and light rain
possible in NC / VA. It will move off the coast tonight and induce
the formation of a low pressure area off the coast. The second piece
is generating more clouds.... with showers and thunderstorms.... from
central and eastern TX to the central and southern MS Valley regions
today. Partly cloudy skies in between. To the north, high pressure
centered over northern New England is pushing cool northeast breezes
and dry weather in the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Continued
unsettled on Friday across most of the south as the second piece of
energy moves east. Dry for the north. Saturday through
Monday.... Details are hard to resolve... but now it looks like
more clouds than not for the Southeast and mid-Atlantic with a chance
of light rain or showers, due to the stalled front and a low pressure
area that will probably form along it. A cold front will approach and
push through the eastern U.S. Saturday night and Sunday. Showers
possible with the frontal passage in the upper mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Rain ending and conditions improving nearly all areas on
Monday as the cold front moves off the coast.
Southeast.... Low to Weakly Moderate Risk for southern FL today and Friday. Weakly Moderate Risk for southern GA / northern FL today, increasing to Strongly Moderate Risk for this region on Friday. Mixed weather conditions are expected in the Southeast Saturday. Conditions becoming less favorable for disease development Sunday and Monday.
Mid-Atlantic .....Favorable conditions today and Friday in this region. Strongly Moderate Risk Thursday for broad areas of central NC and southern and central VA. Moderate Risk... perhaps Strongly Moderate if more rain occurs... on Friday for central sections of SC and NC, plus southside VA. Mixed conditions on Saturday in this region transitioning to less favorable Sunday and unfavorable Monday.
Northeast.... unfavorable weather for survivable transport and deposition today and Friday due to the influence of high pressure. Low Risk to cucurbit crops. Mixed weather conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday, unfavorable weather Monday after the weekend cold front passes.
Texas..... Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for deep south Texas Thursday and Friday. Trajectories do not pose a threat to other areas. Mixed weather conditions expected near the source region Saturday through Monday.
NOTE: Freezing or near-freezing temperatures occurred last night (October 1) in the Ohio Valley. Freeze warnings are out for the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight. A frost advisory is up for the counties near the source in NJ. These conditions may imply an end to the threat of disease development from the sources in these areas for this year.
TK
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Charleston, SC
Vincennes, IN
Southern Appalachian Mountains
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.