FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, October 2 :
***** Disease Update - 25 September ***** Our thanks to Margaret McGrath in New York.... who informs us of a downy mildew outbreak in Suffolk County, NY near the town of Riverhead (this is in the eastern half of Long Island). This outbreak, of questionable severity, occurred in a 25-acre field of pumpkin. Lesions appeared to be fairly new. A trajectory for this site will be combined with the forecast for the New Jersey site.
***** The Weather...... southern / eastern U.S. ***** Cool and mostly dry weather in the southern and eastern U.S. during the next 4 to 5 days. A cold front will push through the eastern seaboard states today with a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it. Light rain is expected across the northern areas, near the parent low pressure area, but the frontal passage will be dry for other locations. Very chilly temperatures for this time of year last night in the Lakes and Ohio Valley with lows in the 20's and 30's many areas. Similar situation is in store for the East tonight. A freeze is expected in the mountains. Lows will be in the 30's for most areas of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Some areas will see frosts at these temperatures while others will not. A dry day on Friday. Chance of isolated to scattered showers for southern FL Thursday and Friday due to the proximity of dying fronts. The next frontal system will move into the Great Lakes / western Ohio Valley late Friday, then continue across the rest of the eastern / southern U.S. over the weekend. Increased clouds and a chance of showers as the front passes, with the cloudier / more unsettled weather lasting about a day at any given place. Dry otherwise. Best chance of rain across the northern areas. Daily scattered showers continue for southern FL. Temperatures remaining below normal virtually everywhere in the eastern U.S., thanks to a broad, deep trough of low pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere.
Southeast.... Moderate Risk for southern FL Thursday and Friday, with mixed conditions for disease development persisting through Monday. Low Risk otherwise.
Northeast.... Weakly Moderate Risk Thursday for DE, NJ, eastern PA, southeastern NY. Low Risk elsewhere on Thursday and region-wide on Friday. Mostly favorable conditions expected in this region Saturday and Sunday, unfavorable conditions Monday.
Ohio Valley.... Low Risk Thursday. Moderate Risk Friday central and southern IN and eastern IL, Low Risk otherwise. Mixed conditions in this region on Saturday, unfavorable conditions Sunday and Monday.
Elsewhere... Low Risk to cucurbit crops Thursday and Friday. Unfavorable weather Saturday and Monday, mixed conditions on Sunday.
NOTE: Freezing or near-freezing temperatures occurred last night in the Ohio Valley. Freeze warnings are out for the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight. A frost advisory is up for the counties near the source in NJ. These conditions may imply an end to the threat of disease development from the sources in these areas for this year.
TK
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Charleston, SC
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.