FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, October 16 :
***** The Weather......
southern / eastern U.S. ***** Weak front to bring a chance of
showers to the southern / eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday....
otherwise mostly dry weather through early next week. High
pressure and dry conditions will hold sway for most of the next week.
A cold front will move into the South and East Thursday and Friday. A
fairly thin area of cloudiness and possible showers will accompany
the front.... which will affect the Ohio Valley later Thursday,
mid-Atlantic and South later on Friday.... moving off the coast by
Saturday. Rainfall amounts, where they occur, will be light. Daily
high temperatures dropping 5 to 10 degrees behind the front. A low
pressure area will move across the far northern sections Saturday
night and Sunday, bringing some rain to parts of the Northeast.
Next week.... a cold front will move through the eastern /
southern U.S., probably on Wednesday.
Eastern United States.... Low Risk all areas Thursday. As the cold front moves into the region on Friday, mixed conditions will bring Moderate Risk of disease development to eastern PA, NJ, DE, and extreme southeastern NY. Trajectories will be moving offshore, though, so the threat of transport and deposition will be fairly limited. Airborne spores from the eastern VA and central NC source areas will encounter unfavorable transport conditions. Any rain won't arrive until Friday night, well behind the spore transport. Continued Low Risk for these regions on Friday. Trajetories out of southern FL do not threaten other areas and conditions will be unfavorable for disease development. Far southern FL may have some isolated showers, which could bring locally favorable conditions for disease development. Low Risk for this region for the next 5 days. Saturday through Monday.... unfavorable weather is expected near all the known source regions. The lone possible exception is the possible isolated shower in far southern FL. The low pressure system forecast to pass along the Canadian border on Sunday will likely be too far north to bring any favorable weather to the sources in the Northeast.
Texas..... Strongly Moderate Risk for this area on Thursday, Weakly Moderate Risk on Friday. Trajectories do not threaten other areas. Unfavorable conditions are expected in this region through early next week.
NOTE: Freezing or near-freezing temperatures occurred last night (October 1) in the Ohio Valley. Freeze warnings are out for the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight. A frost advisory is up for the counties near the source in NJ. These conditions may imply an end to the threat of disease development from the sources in these areas for this year.
TK
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Charleston, SC
Vincennes, IN
Southern Appalachian Mountains
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.