14 October 2003 Downy Mildew Forecasts

 

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, October 14 :


***** The Weather...... southern / eastern U.S. ***** Rainy, unsettled weather is here today... gone tomorrow. A frontal system is moving rapidly through the eastern and southern U.S. Cloudy skies most areas today. Light rain and showers associated with a warm front are moving north / northeast through the mid-Atlantic states this morning / early afternoon. A cold front stretches southward from the parent low pressure area in the Ohio Valley. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms.... at midday Thursday in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... is moving east ahead of the cold front and Low. Showers and thunderstorms are likely later today and tonight for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with more scattered shower activity across the deep South into southern TX. On Wednesday.... The cold front will move off the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Morning showers possible in the Northeast; scattered showers possible far southern FL and far southern TX. All other areas will see clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions as high pressure builds in behind the departing front.

 

***** The Forecasts *****

Southeast.... Weakly Moderate Risk for southern FL today and Wednesday. Moderate Risk for southern GA / northern FL today, Low Risk in this area Wednesday as the weather improves. Trajectories do not threaten other areas.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.....Favorable conditions today, unfavorable weather Thursday. For Tuesday... HIGH Risk for central NC... Strongly Moderate Risk for all of VA east of the mountains, DE, and MD. Moderate Risk for NJ, far eastern PA, southeast NY, and southern New England. Today's trajectories are moving north or northwest, reaching areas that have already had their first frost or freeze fairly quickly, so the long-range threat is limited. Low Risk for both of these regions on Wednesday.

Texas..... HIGH Risk for deep south Texas Tuesday, Moderate Risk for this area on Wednesday. Trajectories move south and southwest during the next two days.

NOTE: Freezing or near-freezing temperatures occurred last night (October 1) in the Ohio Valley. Freeze warnings are out for the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight. A frost advisory is up for the counties near the source in NJ. These conditions may imply an end to the threat of disease development from the sources in these areas for this year.

TK


Current Sources:

 

Previous Sources:

Charleston, SC
Vincennes, IN
Southern Appalachian Mountains


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This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.