20 November 2003 Downy Mildew Forecasts

 

***** Forecast notes - 20 November ***** We were unable to produce forecasts on Tuesday, November 18. A conflicting situation arose suddenly, and we apologize to our users for the lack of warning.

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, November 20 :

Disease Update - 30 October: Many disease sources have either been disked up and/or succumbed to frost.... including the ones in DE, far eastern VA (Painter), southeastern NY (Riverhead), and Tarboro, NC. We are still awaiting word on the status of others. Any information on the current status of downy mildew outbreaks is greatly appreciated. Please contact Cucurbit Forecast Leader Dr. Gerald Holmes (gerald_holmes@ncsu.edu) or your Forecaster Thomas Keever (thomas_keever@ncsu.edu) if you have any news. Thanks!


***** The Weather...... southern / southeastern U.S. ***** A strong frontal system moved through the eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Following this system is sunny, dry weather associated with a high pressure area building in behind the front. A cold front will move into the upper Midwest today, turning stationary from the Northeast into the central Plains on Friday. High pressure and dry conditions will remain in control of the weather over the South and Southeast for the next 3 to 4 days. The stationary front will waver in position through much of the weekend.... then, with a push from some energy in the upper atmosphere, it will drive through the southern / eastern U.S. late Sunday and Monday. Expect a chance of showers in our current areas of interest as the front passes early next week, but no widespread areas of rain. Cooler temps immediately behind yesterday's front will moderate fairly quickly. Temperatures will be above normal for most areas through the weekend under sunny to partly cloudy skies.

 

***** The Forecasts *****

Southern / Southeastern United States.... Expect unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition from the known source through early next week. The approach and passage of the next cold front are not expected to create favorable enough conditions to endanger areas away from the known sources... and the known sources will experience mixed conditions at worst. Low Threat from the known sources through early next week, with Low Risk to cucurbit crops in all areas through Sunday. A chance of showers associated with the approaching cold front late Sunday and Monday may produce locally favorable conditions for disease development. The hard freeze that was forecast for central NC a week ago was only partially realized. Some areas, including those in southern NC where disease had been present, did not reach the freezing mark and little to no frost occurred. Thus, some downy mildew may still be active. The central NC source will be carried until such a frost or freeze occurs.

TK


Current Sources:

 

Previous Sources:

Charleston, SC
Vincennes, IN
Southern Appalachian Mountains
Painter, VA
Pittstown, NJ


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This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.