11 November 2003 Downy Mildew Forecasts

 

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, November 11 :

Disease Update - 30 October: Many disease sources have either been disked up and/or succumbed to frost.... including the ones in DE, far eastern VA (Painter), southeastern NY (Riverhead), and Tarboro, NC. We are still awaiting word on the status of others. Any information on the current status of downy mildew outbreaks is greatly appreciated. Please contact Cucurbit Forecast Leader Dr. Gerald Holmes (gerald_holmes@ncsu.edu) or your Forecaster Thomas Keever (thomas_keever@ncsu.edu) if you have any news. Thanks!


***** The Weather...... southern / southeastern U.S. ***** A frontal system will move into the southern and southeastern U.S. Wednesday night, but its passage will be marked by a shot of colder air and little to no rainfall. A cold front snakes its way from the upper mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and into the central Plains. It will remain essentially in place on Tuesday..... kicking off some showers in the aforementioned areas plus the Northeast... while our regions of interest remain sunny to partly cloudy, dry, and seaonsably warm. Another system moving southeastward from the northern Plains will help push this front to the south and east late Wednesday. The resident air mass in the south and southeast is fairly dry, however, and moisture sources in the Gulf and Atlantic will be cut off with this front. Only isolated showers at best are expected, though one exception may be northern TX where showers may be more scattered. Temperatures on Wednesday warmer than today's. Highs in the 70's and 80's over the southern and southeastern U.S. Markedly cooler and breezy on Thursday for most locations as strong high pressure builds in behind the front.

 

***** The Forecasts *****

Southern / Southeastern United States.... Trajectories from southern FL and extreme southern GA present no threat with sky conditions unfavorable and no rain expected. Some fleeting cloud cover in central NC today, but the trajectory is moving toward areas where the growing season is over. No rain expected near the source Tuesday or Wednesday. No rain expected near the source in far southern TX either....but partly cloudy skies accompany today's trajectory.... and there is a chance of rain during the Wednesday portion of today's transport event. Risk to any cucurbits growing in the northeast TX / southeast OK / southern AR / northern LA region should be Low to Weakly Moderate, however. Low Risk for all other cucurbit growing areas in the South and Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. The expected hard freeze in the mid-Atlanctic occurred as expected this past weekend, eliminating the threat of any previously existing sources in that region.

TK


Current Sources:

 

Previous Sources:

Charleston, SC
Vincennes, IN
Southern Appalachian Mountains
Painter, VA
Pittstown, NJ


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This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.