FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, June 12 (Abbreviated) :
***** In the Southeast.... A Bermuda High has become entrenched off the U.S. east coast and a summer-like weather pattern will persist in the region for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will run warm to hot and moisture is abundant. Partly cloudy skies with daily rounds of afternoon / evening showers and thunderstorms are expected. Showers are likely in some areas each day (mostly FL and southern GA). Activity in other areas will vary from day to day. The greater long-range threat is provided by the source in southern GA. Transport events from this area (and to a lesser extent from the weaker Charleston source) will affect the Carolinas over the next 4 to 5 days, as trajectories will be moving northeast each day. Thursday and Friday..... Strongly Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula and southern GA. Moderate Risk for central and eastern sections of SC and NC. Low Risk otherwise. Saturday through Monday... expect similar weather conditions and transport scenarios through the period. A front that now lies stationary over the mid-Atlantic states will eventually push south late Saturday and Sunday, stalling somewhere (central sections?) over the region by Monday.
***** In Texas... a frontal system stalled across the north will impact the state over the next two days. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected.... with showers and thunderstorms possible over all but the far west and deep south. Showers and likeliest and the heaviest rains are expected over a broad area of the central and eastern sections. Continued hot with highs in the 80's to low 100's. The front may get an extra push from the north by Saturday and reach central areas of TX, where it will probably stall out again. Trajectories from the source move north today, northwest Friday, and likely WNW on Saturday. Fortunately, conditions near the source will be unfavorable for survivable transport, and the hot, mostly dry weather may help hold down sporulation. This source is a Low Threat Thursday and Friday.... with Low, to perhaps Weakly Moderate Risk locally Saturday through Monday.
TK
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Previous Sources:
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This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.