North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 26 June 2003
Disease location(s): Far southern GA (Lowndes and Echols counties)
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Lake Park, GA

Regional weather: Thursday, June 26 - Southeast U.S.: High pressure sits atop the region today with sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80's and 90's. Mostly dry today also other than some scattered afternoon showers expected in parts of FL. An expansive cold front that now stretches from the Great Lakes to the southern plains will move into the region on Friday. Expect partly cloudy skies most areas with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible almost region-wide in the afternoon and evening. Lows in the 60's and 70's tonight, highs Friday similar to today's. Saturday through Monday.... it appears that the front will bog down somewhere over the region by Saturday morning and remain there, while high pressure re-establishes itself off the coast. Expect steamy, unsettled weather with a diurnal pattern to showers and thunderstorms (afternoons and evenings, dying off for overnight and mornings). There is a possibility of some tropical moisture being funnelled into the region during the weekend. Some forecast models show this weakly, some strongly. If the stronger models are correct, heavy rains could occur in some areas, particularly the Gulf coast.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny today, high in the low 90's. Partly cloudy tonight and Friday, low in the low 70's, high in the upper 80's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Moderate Threat Friday *** Unfavorable conditions associated with today's transport event. Skies are sunny to partly cloudy and no rain is expected near the source or along the forecast pathway. Low Risk to cucurbit crops on Thursday. Friday's trajectory is quite similar to today's but it hugs the coastline during the second day of travel. Mixed conditions are expected for this event. Moderate Risk for northern FL and southern GA on Friday. Low Risk otherwise. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.