North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 26 June 2003
Disease location(s): Southern Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Immokalee, FL and Boynton Beach, FL

Regional weather: Thursday, June 26 - Southeast U.S.: High pressure sits atop the region today with sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80's and 90's. Mostly dry today also other than some scattered afternoon showers expected in parts of FL. An expansive cold front that now stretches from the Great Lakes to the southern plains will move into the region on Friday. Expect partly cloudy skies most areas with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible almost region-wide in the afternoon and evening. Lows in the 60's and 70's tonight, highs Friday similar to today's. Saturday through Monday.... it appears that the front will bog down somewhere over the region by Saturday morning and remain there, while high pressure re-establishes itself off the coast. Expect steamy, unsettled weather with a diurnal pattern to showers and thunderstorms (afternoons and evenings, dying off for overnight and mornings). There is a possibility of some tropical moisture being funnelled into the region during the weekend. Some forecast models show this weakly, some strongly. If the stronger models are correct, heavy rains could occur in some areas, particularly the Gulf coast.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy through the forecast. Scattered showers possible, 20-30% chance, during the afternoons and evenings. Highs near 90, low in the low 70's.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition for the transport events on Thursday and Friday. Friday's trajectories move north up the peninsula, so the threat will extend farther north than today's. Moderate Risk Thursday for southern FL. Moderate Risk Friday for southern and central FL. Low Risk otherwise. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.