28 August 2003 Downy Mildew Forecasts

 

***** Forecast Notes - 28 August *****

Your forecaster will be on leave Tuesday, September 2. Our next forecasts are scheduled for Thursday, September 4.

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, August 28 :

***** Disease Update - 26 August ..... Downy Mildew has been reported from the mountains of South Carolina. Our thanks to Tony Keinath.... who informs us of a serious outbreak of downy mildew on pumpkin in Greenville County, near the town of Piedmont. Around 2/3 of a 5-10 acre field is heavily infected. Heavy sporulation is occurring on older leaves of the plants. Some necrosis is present. As this site is fairly close to the Horse Shoe, NC location in Henderson County, users should refer to the trajetories out of Horse Shoe to determine where spores from this site are moving.

***** The Weather...... southern / eastern U.S. ***** A stationary front over the mid-Atlantic / Ohio Valley will lift north as a warm front today and tonight. On Friday a cold front will push into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley from the northwest, extending southwestward toward the southern Plains. Sunny to partly cloudy skies today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms for portions of the Gulf coast states and the Southeast..... northward into the southern Appalachian Mountains. Isolated showers possible portions of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. Dry otherwise. Isolated to scattered showers possible for most areas on Friday, and showers / thunderstorms likely near the front. Saturday through Monday.... the front will stall out northeast-to-southwest from the mid-Atlantic states / southern mountains / Ohio Valley / southern Plains. Afternoon / evening showers and thunderstorms likely near the front. Scattered shower activity to the south and east of it with mostly dry weather to its north and west. Hot weather continues in the Southeast with moderating temps elsewhere.

***** The Forecasts *****

Southeast...... as has been the case for some time now.... mixed to favorable weather in this region. Strongly Moderate Risk for the southern half of FL each day. Moderate Risk for southern GA and nearby areas of northern FL each day. Little threat to other regions.

Mid-Atlantic.... Trajectories generally moving to the the northeast. Unfavorable weather today. Weakly Moderate Risk for central NC and southside VA, Low Risk otherwise. Mixed conditions expected on Friday. Moderate Risk Friday for eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, southern New England. Weakly Moderate Risk for central NC and southside VA. Mixed conditions for disease development expected Saturday through Monday, with these same areas the most likely to be affected.

Southern Appalachian Mountains.... Mixed weather conditions expected in this region for the next 4 to 5 days. Moderate Risk Thursday and Friday for cucurbit crops in this region, plus those nearby areas in western NC and western VA. Depending on the location of the front, conditions could deteriorate from mixed to favorable during the weekend.

Ohio Valley .... mostly unfavorable conditions today. Weakly Moderate Risk for western IN and eastern IL. Weather becoming favorable on Friday as the cold front approaches. Strongly Moderate Risk for eastern IL, southern and central IN, and western OH. Low Risk otherwise. Saturday through Monday.... current forecasts put the stalled frontal boundary to the south and east of the known source near Vincennes. Best that can be said is that the least favorable weather will be toward the north and west. The more favorable weather for disease development will be toward the eastern and southern sections of this region.

Texas.... trajectories move to the northwest each day. The main effects from the approaching cold front will be felt in the northern sections, with the weather near the source remaining mostly unfavorable to unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Threat from this source, with Low Risk to cucurbit crops.

TK


Current Sources:

 

Previous Sources:

Charleston, SC


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This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.