FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, August 21 :
***** Disease Update - 21 August
.....We have two more reports of downy mildew, both from the
mid-Atlantic states. One is from Hunterdon county, NJ, near the town
of Pittstown. A 5-acre field of pumpkin and winter squash is 20%
infected. The other is from Kent County, Delaware. A 40-acre field of
pumpkin is 10% infected. Both outbreaks are rated as moderately
serious, and of course recent weather has been favorable in both
locations. We will add the NJ location as another source. Users are
asked to use the Painter, VA site and the Pittstown, NJ site as
indicators of spore travel from the DE outbreak.... as the DE
outbreak is situated favorable between the VA and NJ sites.
***** Disease Update - 19 August
.....Yet another DM report from central NC.... this one from the
northern coastal plain in Edgecombe County. A 3-acre pumpkin field is
about 70% infected. Bravo has been applied and appears to be working.
This is moderately serious source. Users should refer to the
trajetories out of central NC to determine where spores from this
site are moving.
***** The Weather...... southern / eastern
U.S. ***** A cold front now in the Great Lakes and Midwest will
push into the eastern and southern U.S. over the next 3 to 5
days. Thursday....
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the deep South
northward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, and in the upper
Ohio Valley ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry and warm in the
Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions. Friday.... scattered
showers and thunderstorms in two main areas... from the Southeast
westward along the Gulf coast into TX... and in the Ohio Valley,
Northeast, and mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front. Saturday.... dry
across the north with the northern end of the cold front off the
coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Southeast to
central TX. Sunday and
Monday.... the cold front will
likely lie along an east-west line from TX to northern FL, then it
will sink slowly south and begin dissipating. Dry, cooler, and less
humid conditions for most areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected near the dying front.
Southeast...... favorable weather continues. Strongly Moderate Risk for all of FL and southern GA Thursday and Friday. Mixed conditions are expected in this region Saturday through Monday.
Southern Appalachian Mountains...... Moderate Risk for the mountains areas plus nearby parts of western NC Thursday and Friday. Trajectories moving east both days. Mixed conditions will persist on Saturday. Unfavorable conditions Sunday and Monday after the cold front passes to the south.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.... Low Risk to cucurbit crops in this region today with dry weather expected. Mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition move in on Friday as the cold front draws closer. Trajectories will be moving to the northeast or ENE. Growing areas near the coast are most likely to be affected. Moderate Risk Friday for central and eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, extreme southeast NY, and southern New England. Low Risk otherwise. The Northeast will be dry on Saturday while showers are expected in the mid-Atlantic. Unfavorable weather Sunday and Monday for both these regions, when they will be under the influence of cool, dry high pressure.
Ohio Valley.... Mixed conditions today and Friday as the front moves through. Unfavorable weather behind the front Saturday through Monday. Moderate Risk Thursday for western and northern IN and eastern IL. Moderate Risk Friday for southeast IL and southern IN. Low Risk otherwise.
Texas.... the weather in and around the source region will generally be mixed regarding disease development.... leaning toward the unfavorable side. Partly cloudy skies, 20 to 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Trajectories Thursday and Friday move northwest. Weakly Moderate to Moderate Risk Thursday and Friday for deep south TX and the Rio Grande Plains. Low Risk elsewhere.
TK
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Charleston, SC
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.