North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 24 April 2003
Disease location(s): Southern Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Immokalee, FL and Boynton Beach, FL

Regional weather: Thursday, April 24 - Southeast U.S.: After one more dry day for most of the region..... a low pressure / frontal system will be moving into the region late today and tonight. Clouds and showers will move into western sections first, then overspread the region on Friday. Partly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers for the FL peninsula today and Friday. By Saturday... the cold front associated with the system will move into the Southeast. Heavy rains will have ended, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the eastern sections and along the FL peninsula while the western sections begin to dry out. The front will be stalled over southern FL on Sunday. It is anticipated to dissipate near that area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible while it fizzles out. The rest of the region will be sunny to partly cloudy and dry on Sunday. More of the same on Monday.

Trajectory weather: Fair to partly cloudy today, high in the mid-80's. Becoming variably to mostly cloudy tonight, slight chance of showers, low in the low 60's. Partly to mostly cloudy on Friday with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, high in the 70's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Moderate Threat Friday and Saturday *** Unfavorable transport conditions today, with Low Risk to cucurbit crops in the region. Friday and Saturday..... trajetories move more to the east each day and proceed more quickly off the coast. Mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition are expected, with partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers each day. Moderate Risk for southern and central FL Friday and Saturday. Sunday and Monday... a chance of showers remains in the forecast for the source region. Trajectories will likely be moving slowly near the source or heading to the ENE, presenting little danger to other regions. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.