North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 24 April 2003
Disease location(s): Deep South Texas, Hidalgo County
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Hidalgo, TX

Regional weather: Thursday, April 24 - Texas: The low pressure / frontal system that has brough the wet weather for the past couple of days will be moving to the east. Mostly cloudy east TX today with a chance of showers or thunderstorms. Clear to partly cloudy west and dry. The cold front portion of this weather system will swing through the state on Friday, but with little in the way of clouds or rain to go with it. Dry weather will continue through at least Sunday. Highs mostly in the 70's and 80's, lows mostly 40's to 60's.

Trajectory weather: Variably cloudy early, decreasing clouds during the afternoon, high near 90. Mostly clear tonight and Friday, low near 70, high in the low 90's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport of spores for the transport events of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. The trajectories move slowly away from the source and are non-threatening to other regions. Dry weather expected near the source and along the forecast pathways. Low Risk to cucurbit crops Thursday through Saturday in this region. Sunday and Monday....the weather near the source region will be mostly unfavorable for disease development, although by Monday, some cloudiness may move in along with a slight chance of showers. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.