North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 22 April 2003
Disease location(s): Deep South Texas, Hidalgo County
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Hidalgo, TX

Regional weather: Tuesday, April 22 - Texas: A frontal system will develop in the southern plains during the next two days, bringing cloudy, unsettled weather to the state. Cloudy skies dominate most of the state Tuesday morning. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is already active in the Panhandle southeastward into central TX. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across nearly all of the state by this evening with active weather continuing into Wednesday. Far west TX will remain dry and the deep south areas may have only isolated showers. Western sections of the state will begin to dry out late on Wednesday, with more tranquill weather on tap later in the week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday ranging from the 60's to 80's, lows mostly in the 50's and 60's.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy through the forecast. Slight chance of showers today, high near 85. Good chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, low in the low 50's. Showers and thunderstorms likely on Wednesday, high in the upper 60's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat *** Conditions will be favorable for disease development during the next two days, especially to the north of the source region. On Tuesday... Moderate Risk near the source. Strongly Moderate Risk along a broad area of western TX.... from the Big Bend and south-central TX northward through the rolling plains and western sections of north TX. Moderate Risk for western OK and the TX / OK Panhandles. Low Risk beyond, as nearly all airborne spores will have been washed out. On Wednesday.... the trajectory moves slowly north into south-central TX by Thursday morning, then curves abruptly eastward as winds shift behind a front..... approaching the upper TX coast by Wednesday evening. Rain is expected to end Thursday morning, so the risk to cucurbit crops should be confined to the times before that. Moderate Risk near the source. Strongly Moderate Risk for the Rio Grande Plains and south-central TX. Low Risk otherwise. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.