North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 17 April 2003
Disease location(s): Southern Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Immokalee, FL and Boynton Beach, FL

Regional weather: Thursday, April 17 - Southeast U.S.: Two cold fronts are approaching the region today and tonight, a "back door" front from the north as high pressure wedges down the eastern seaboard, and another from the west. Skies are sunny to partly cloudy across the region as of early afternoon Thursday. Clouds are increasing in the western sections, and showers will arrive there later this afternoon. A few isolated showers are possible for FL. By Friday morning..... the cold front from the north will be near the NC / SC border. Warm temps and sunny skies in NC on Thursday will be replaced by cloudy skies, much cooler temps (50's and 60's rather than 70's and 80's), and drizzle or light rain tonight and early Friday. The cold front coming in from the west will be over western NC/SC down through south-central GA and the FL panhandle. Both of these front will be dissipating on Friday night. The bulk of the rainfall from Thursday through Saturday morning will be in an area from the southern Appalachian Mountains..... south and east to western NC, western and central SC, and northeast GA. This region is near where the two cold fronts will meet. The sections of the Southeast not mentioned above will be partly cloudy on Friday with highs in the 70's and 80's. Isolated showers are possible into southern GA and FL. Saturday through Monday.... The fronts will have lost most of their identity by Saturday. Clouds will linger across parts of the northern sections of the Southeast. Sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere with a chance of isolated showers for most areas. Sunday will be partly cloudy and dry for most sections as the next frontal system approaches from the west. This next cold front will move through the region Monday, bring most areas increased cloudiness and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny through midday, becoming partly cloudy this afternoon with a slight chance of an afternoon shower. High in the mid to upper 80's. Partly cloudy tonight, low in the low 70's. Partly cloudy Friday, isolated shower possible in the afternoon, high in the mid-80's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** All the unsettled weather will remain well to the north of the source region over the next 4 to 5 days. Trajectories on Friday and Saturday move to the west without threatening other growing regions. The cold front scheduled to come through the Southeast on Monday is not expected to heavily influence the weather near the source. Trajectories for Sunday and Monday are very uncertain this far out. The situation will be watched. Should it appear that areas to the north of the source will be affected, we will issue additional forecasts. Overall..... slightly favorable conditions for disease development in southern FL at least for the next 3 days and probably 5. Weakly Moderate Risk near the source region through the period. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.