North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 17 April 2003
Disease location(s): Deep South Texas, Hidalgo County
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Hidalgo, TX

Regional weather: Thursday, April 17 - Texas: The front now across south-central TX will lift to the north as warm front today and tonight. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry today. Highs in the 70's to 90's, lows tonight in the 50's and 60's. The next cold front will move through the state on Friday and Saturday. Expect increased cloudiness and a chance of isolated to scattered showers as the front passes, particularly in the north, where the heavier rainfall amounts are anticipated. Sunday and Monday... the cold front is expected to stall out over the far eastern and southern reaches of the state. These areas will have more cloudiness and a chance of showers. The rest of the state should experience cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy through early afternoon, then skies becoming fair later. High in the low 90's. Partly cloudy tonight and Friday. Chance of isolated showers late tonight, and again late on Friday. Low in the mid-50's, high in the upper 70's on Friday.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Moderate on Friday *** Sky conditions this afternoon are unfavorable for survivable transport of spores. Only a slight chance of showers along the trajetory. Low threat from today's event. On Friday.... the trajectory is a carbon copy of Thursday's trajectory until it reaches the OK border.... then it slows as it turns north, moving across central OK during the day on Saturday. Conditions are expected to be mixed for survivable transport and deposition, which could occur just about anywhere north of the source. Very little to no rain expected near the source on Friday. Moderate Risk Friday for cucurbit crops in a broad arc of western and central TX, plus most of OK. Low Risk near the source, far west TX, the TX and OK panhandles, northeast TX, and southeast TX into the coastal bend. Saturday... preliminary trajectory indicates very slow movement in deep south TX and the Rio Grande Plains. Mostly cloudy skies and a 20 to 30% chance of showers are forecast. Moderate Risk Saturday for deep South TX, the TX coastal bend and the Rio Grande Plains. Low Risk otherwise. Sunday and Monday... trajectories would be too uncertain to give a detailed description. However they will probably be moving slowly near the source region, or heading away to the west. During this time, mixed conditions are expected near the source. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.