North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 15 April 2003
Disease location(s): Southern Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Immokalee, FL and Boynton Beach, FL

Regional weather: Tuesday, April 15 - Southeast U.S.: A broad ridge of high pressure extends westward across the Southeast from its center off the mid-Atlantic coast. This feature will govern the weather for the next two days. Clear to partly cloudy skies and no rain for most areas. With easterly flow into the FL peninsula.... isolated late night / morning showers are possible along the FL southeast coast. A few isolated afternoon showers may pop up in east-central or southern FL on Wednesday, also. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows mostly 50's and 60's. A low pressure area approaching from the Midwest and a 'back-door' cold front moving south down the eastern seaboard will affect the region on Thursday and Friday.

Trajectory weather: Late morning shower possible for Boynton Beach / southeast FL coast.... otherwise mostly sunny / mostly clear through the forecast. High in the mid-80's, low in the upper 60's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Trajectories from this region will not threaten other regions during the next two days, as Wednesday's trajectories move slowly westward and today's move as shown above, into the Gulf. Conditions for disease development in southern FL today are slightly favorable east coast, unfavorable otherwise. Slightly favorable conditions across the source region on Wednesday, with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance (20%) of showers. Tuesday..... Weakly Moderate Risk east coast of southern FL. Low Risk elsewhere. Wednesday..... Weakly Moderate Risk of disease development across the source region. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.