North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 15 April 2003
Disease location(s): Deep South Texas, Hidalgo County
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Hidalgo, TX

Regional weather: Tuesday, April 15 - Texas: A low pressure area and cold front are developing in the lee of the Rocky Mountains today. The Low will pass to the north through the central Plains while dragging the cold front through TX tonight and Wednesday. Enhanced cloudiness as the front passes, a chance of showers or thunderstorms for the northern 2/3 of the state, otherwise dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows mostly 50's and 60's.

Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the upper 70's. Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, low in the low 60's. Chance of rain 30%. Partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday with a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, high in the mid-70's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Tuesday, Low Threat Wednesday *** Skies have become partly cloudy by midday along today's forecast trajectory which will result in mixed spore death and spore survival. No rain expected near the source nor in deep South or south-central TX. Chance of showers (and thus deposition) comes into play tonight and Wednesday while any surviving airborne spores will be moving rapidly to the northeast. Best chances of effective deposition appear to be along the forecast pathway through mid-morning Wednesday. Low Risk for southern TX. Moderate Risk for northern TX, southeast OK, and western and northern AR. Low Risk beyond. On Wednesday.... the trajectory moves very slowly north into south-central TX over 36 hours. Conditions are expected to be unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. Low Risk Wednesday for cucurbit crops in this region. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.