North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 10 April 2003
Disease location(s): Southern Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Immokalee, FL and Boynton Beach, FL

Regional weather: Thursday, April 10 - Southeast U.S.: A low pressure are now near Charleston, SC will move very slowly to the north during the next two days, then move out of the weather picture. High pressure will move in behind the departing system, holding sway through early next week. Thursday: Cloudy from north FL northward into the mid-Atlantic states. Rain with showers and thunderstorms for northern GA and the Carolinas; chance of showers southern GA and northern FL. Partly cloudy and dry central and southern FL. Highs 40's north to 70's south. Friday: Conditions slowly improving from south to north. Still cloudy north GA and the Carolinas, sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere. Chance of rain mostly northern SC and NC, dry elsewhere. Temperatures warming a bit compared to Thursday, ranging from 50's to 70's. Saturday through Monday: Sunny to partly cloudy region-wide with a warming trend. Temperatures rebound nicely.... into the 60's and 70's.... where they have been in the 40's or low 50's all week. Other than a few isolated showers in some areas, no rain expected.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy through the forecast. High near 80 each day, low tonight in the low 60's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Strong west to northwest flows are present behind the cold front that passed through yesterday and the strong surface Low to the north. Trajectories move quicly east on Thursday and Friday. Sky conditions are mostly unfavorable for survivable transport. No rain is expected near the source region. Winds will slacken as high pressure moves over the source region this weekend, so trajectories should not threaten other areas. Weekend conditions will also be dry and mostly unfavorable for survivable transport of spores. Low Risk to cucurbit crops near the source region..... and elsewhere..... from Thursday through Monday. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.