North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 8 April 2003
Disease location(s): Southern Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Immokalee, FL and Boynton Beach, FL

Regional weather: Tuesday, April 8 - Southeast U.S.: Wet weather for most of this region over the next several days. A stationary front lies over the interior Southeast this morning. Waves of low pressure will develop and move along the front during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly south and east. The strongest of these Lows will develop on Wednesday, move off the coast Wednesday night and strengthen as it proceeds northeast just off the Atlantic coastline. Periods of rain and/or showers and thunderstorms will affect areas from northern FL northward through the Carolinas. Central and southern FL will be partly cloudy today, 40% chance of showers central, slight chance(20%) south. As the strong Low moves off the GA coast, it will drag a cold front through the FL peninsula Wednesday and Wednesday night, increasing the clouds and chance of rain for central and southern FL. Highs ranging from the upper 40's north to 80's south both days. Lows in the 40's north to low 70's south.

Trajectory weather: Fair to partly cloudy through mid-afternoon, then becoming mostly cloudy during late afternoon with a 40% chance of showers. High in the mid-80's. Showers and thunderstorms likely tonight, low in the mid-50's. Chance of rain 70% early, increasing to near 100% late. Occasional rain through mid-morning Wednesday, chance of rain 90%.... then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain for the rest of the day. Temperatures falling into the upper 40's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Solar exposure will kill some airborne spores, but some will survive and may affect areas to the north. Mostly dry conditions expected near the source today. Chance of rain enters the picture late in the day. Looking at the forecasts for coastal areas for tonight and today's radar trends, total washout is likely by midnight or shortly after. Low Risk to cucurbit crops near the source. Moderate Risk for central and northern FL, southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk beyond. For Wednesday.... the trajectories move quickly to the northeast and out to sea. Mixed conditions for survivable transport are expected near the source, with a good chance of showers during the afternoon and evening. Washout should be complete overnight while the trajectory is well away from any land areas. Moderate Risk on Wednesday for southern and central FL. Low Risk elsewhere. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.