North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 19 September 2002
Disease location(s): Far eastern VA (Accomack County)
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Painter, VA

Regional weather: Thursday, September 19 - Eastern U.S.: Soon-to-be-hurricane Isidore is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Future track is uncertain but the storm will likely move slowly in the southern Gulf for at least the next several days. Thursday and Friday.... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the FL / southern GA regions both days. High pressure in the Northeast will move off the coast. A cold front now in the Plains will move east. Scattered showers today from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast Thursday while most of the East remains dry. A band of showers and thunderstorms accompanies the front on Friday, affecting western sections of the OH and TN River valleys. East still dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows in the 60's. Saturday and Sunday.... the cold front will continue slowly east. It will probably weaken with time. Scattered showers will approach the Appalachians on Saturday, progressing over the mountains in some areas on Sunday. Many areas along the east coast will be dry.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy through the forecast. Slight chance of showers tonight and Friday. High near 80 today, upper 70's tomorrow. Low in the low 60's tonight.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Unfavorable conditions dominate the transport events of Thursday and Friday. Low Risk to cucurbit crops each day along the forecast pathways. Saturday and Sunday..... trajectories will likely continue to move north and northeast. Mixed conditions are expected during transport. No rain is expected near the source, but a small chance of showers over portions of PA and/or NY may give rise to some deposition of live spores. Low to Weakly Moderate Risk for central and eastern sections of PA and NY. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.